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Spillovers Across U.S. Financial Markets

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Author Info
Roberto Rigobon
Brian Sack

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Abstract

Movements in the prices of different assets are likely to directly influence one another. This paper develops a model that identifies the contemporaneous interactions between asset prices in U.S. financial markets by relying on the heteroskedasticity in their movements. In particular, we estimate a structural-form GARCH' model that includes the short-term interest rate, the long-term interest rate, and the stock market. The results indicate that there are strong contemporaneous interactions between these variables. Accounting for this behavior is critical for interpreting daily changes in asset prices and for predicting the future paths of their variances and correlations. We demonstrate the importance of this consideration in a risk-management application.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9640.

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Date of creation: Apr 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9640

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  2. Pelin Berkmen & Eduardo E. Cavallo, 2007. "Exchange Rate Policy and Liability Dollarization: An Empirical Study," IMF Working Papers 07/33, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  4. Julius Moschitz, 2004. "Spillovers across High Yield Markets," Finance 0412024, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Mulyadi, Martin Surya, 2009. "Volatility spillover in Indonesia, USA, and Japan capital market," MPRA Paper 16914, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Elena Corallo, 2007. "The effect of the war risk: a comparison of the consequences of the two Iraq wars," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 371-382, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109. [Downloadable!]
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  10. John Y. Campbell & Luis Viceira, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 11119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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  12. George Milunovich, 2006. "Information Spillovers and Size-sorted Portfolios: Structural Evidence from Australia," Research Papers 0610, Macquarie University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Elena Corallo, 2005. "The effect of the war risk: a comparison of the consequences of the two Iraq wars on some financial variables," LIUC Papers in Economics 171, Cattaneo University (LIUC). [Downloadable!]
  14. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Who Leads Financial Markets?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission," NBER Working Papers 11166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Jón Daníelsson & Ryan Love, 2006. "Feedback trading

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  18. Gordon de Brouwer, 2003. "Discussion of 'It Takes More Than a Bubble to Become Japan'," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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