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Spillovers across U.S. financial markets

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Author Info
Roberto Rigobon
Brian Sack

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Abstract

Movements in the prices of different assets are likely to directly influence one another. This paper identifies the contemporaneous interactions between asset prices in U.S. financial markets by relying on the heteroskedasticity in their movements. In particular, we estimate a "structural-form GARCH" model that includes the short-term interest rate, the long-term interest rate, and the stock market. The results indicate that there are strong contemporaneous interactions between these variables. Accounting for this behavior is critical for interpreting daily changes in asset prices and for predicting the future paths of their variances and correlations. We demonstrate the importance of this consideration in a risk-management application.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2003-13.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-13

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Related research
Keywords: Financial markets ; Asset pricing;

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  2. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Who Leads Financial Markets?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-015, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde, 2008. "Equity portfolio diversification under time-varying predictability and comovements: evidence from Ireland, the US, and the UK," Working Papers 2008-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2005. "Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission," NBER Working Papers 11166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Pelin Berkmen & Eduardo E. Cavallo, 2007. "Exchange Rate Policy and Liability Dollarization: An Empirical Study," IMF Working Papers 07/33, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109. [Downloadable!]
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  7. John Y. Campbell & Luis Viceira, 2005. "The Term Structure of the Risk-Return Tradeoff," NBER Working Papers 11119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jón Daníelsson & Ryan Love, 2006. "Feedback trading

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  10. George Milunovich, 2006. "Information Spillovers and Size-sorted Portfolios: Structural Evidence from Australia," Research Papers 0610, Macquarie University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Mulyadi, Martin Surya, 2009. "Volatility spillover in Indonesia, USA, and Japan capital market," MPRA Paper 16914, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Volatility and Causality in Asia Pacific Financial Markets," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  14. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  15. Roberto Rigobon & Dani Rodrik, 2004. "Rule of Law, Democracy, Openness, and Income: Estimating the Interrelationships," NBER Working Papers 10750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Gordon de Brouwer, 2003. "Discussion of 'It Takes More Than a Bubble to Become Japan'," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Anthony Richards & Tim Robinson (ed.), Asset Prices and Monetary Policy Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  17. Elena Corallo, 2007. "The effect of the war risk: a comparison of the consequences of the two Iraq wars," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 371-382, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Julius Moschitz, 2004. "Spillovers across High Yield Markets," Finance 0412024, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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