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Strategic asset allocation in a continuous-time VAR model

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  • Campbell, John Y.
  • Chacko, George
  • Rodriguez, Jorge
  • Viceira, Luis M.

Abstract

This Paper derives an approximate solution to a continuous-time intertemporal portfolio and consumption choice problem. The problem is the continuous-time equivalent of the discrete-time problem studied by Campbell and Viceira (1999), in which the expected excess return on a risky asset follows an AR(1) process, while the riskless interest rate is constant. The Paper also shows how to obtain continuous-time parameters that are consistent with discrete-time econometric estimates. The continuous-time solution is the limit of that of Campbell and Viceira and has the property that conservative long-term investors have a large positive intertemporal hedging demand for stocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 28 (2004)
Issue (Month): 11 (October)
Pages: 2195-2214

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:28:y:2004:i:11:p:2195-2214

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References

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  1. Campbell, John Y. & Chan, Yeung Lewis & Viceira, Luis M., 2003. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-80, January.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1996. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying," NBER Working Papers 5857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Campbell, John Y & Kyle, Albert S, 1993. "Smart Money, Noise Trading and Stock Price Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34, January.
  4. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1989. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: A Theoretical Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 937-69, July.
  5. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
  6. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-36.
  7. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
  8. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
  9. Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 63-91, March.
  10. Bergstrom, A.R., 1984. "Continuous time stochastic models and issues of aggregation over time," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1145-1212 Elsevier.
  11. Duffie, Darrel & Lions, Pierre-Louis, 1992. "PDE solutions of stochastic differential utility," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 577-606.
  12. R. C. Merton, 1970. "Optimum Consumption and Portfolio Rules in a Continuous-time Model," Working papers 58, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  13. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-86, April.
  14. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-94, March.
  15. Kim, Tong Suk & Omberg, Edward, 1996. "Dynamic Nonmyopic Portfolio Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 141-61.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jessica Wachter, 2010. "Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 16255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hoevenaars, Roy P.M.M. & Molenaar, Roderick D.J. & Schotman, Peter C. & Steenkamp, Tom B.M., 2008. "Strategic asset allocation with liabilities: Beyond stocks and bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2939-2970, September.
  3. Weidong Xu & Hongyi Li & Chongfeng Wu, 2011. "A Robust General Equilibrium Stochastic Volatility Model with Recursive Preference Investors," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 12(2), pages 217-231, November.
  4. Eduardo Walker, 2006. "Optimal Portfolios In Defined Contribution Pension Systems," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 9(2), pages 99-129.
  5. Maenhout, Pascal J., 2006. "Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 136-163, May.
  6. Jurek, Jakub W & Viceira, Luis M, 2006. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 5773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Branger, Nicole & Grüning, Patrick & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2013. "Asset pricing under uncertainty about shock propagation," SAFE Working Paper Series 34, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  8. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2005. "Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle in the Presence of 'Trickle Down' Labor Income," NBER Working Papers 11247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Bernd Scherer, 2009. "A note on portfolio choice for sovereign wealth funds," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 315-327, September.
  10. Hening Liu, 2010. "Robust consumption and portfolio choice for time varying investment opportunities," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 435-454, October.
  11. Ferstl, Robert & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2011. "Asset-liability management under time-varying investment opportunities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 182-192, January.
  12. Alois Geyer & Michael Hanke & Alex Weissensteiner, 2009. "A stochastic programming approach for multi-period portfolio optimization," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 187-208, May.
  13. Sørensen, Carsten & Trolle, Anders Bjerre, 2006. "Dynamic asset allocation and latent variables," Working Papers 2004-8, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
  14. Jaime A. Londo\~no, 2006. "State Dependent Utility," Papers math/0603316, arXiv.org.

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