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Nonlinear adjustment in the forward premium: evidence from a threshold unit root test

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  • Sekioua, Sofiane H.
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 164-183

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:15:y:2006:i:2:p:164-183

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

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    4. Lewis, K. & Evans, M.D.D., 1993. "Do Long-Term Swings in the Dollar Affect Estimates of the Risk Premia?," Weiss Center Working Papers 93-12, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    5. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
    6. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2001. "A Non-linear Analysis of Excess Foreign Exchange Returns," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(6), pages 623-42, December.
    7. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "The Long Memory of the Foreward Premium," Papers 9203, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    8. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
    10. Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics.
    11. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 2000. "The forward premium anomaly is not as bad as you think," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 471-488, August.
    12. Luintel, K. B. & Paudyal, K., 1998. "Common stochastic trends between forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 279-297, April.
    13. Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
    14. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    15. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    16. Mark E. Wohar & Nathan S. Balke, 1998. "Nonlinear dynamics and covered interest rate parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 535-559.
    17. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 1672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
    20. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    21. Bec, F. & Salem, M.B. & MacDonald, R., 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: a nonlinear Perspective," Papers 99-17, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
    22. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1994. " Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 737-45, June.
    24. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Crowder, William J, 1994. "Foreign exchange market efficiency and common stochastic trends," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 551-564, October.
    26. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    27. John T. Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty, 2000. "Forward Premiums and Market Efficiency: Panel Unit-root Evidence from the Term Structure of Forward Premiums," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 461, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 13 Jun 2001.
    28. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1977. "Transaction Costs and Interest Arbitrage: Tranquil versus Turbulent Periods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(6), pages 1209-26, December.
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    30. Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2002. "Has the link between the spot and forward exchange rates broken down? Evidence from rolling cointegration tests," ZEI Working Papers B 08-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
    31. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March.
    32. Ramsey James B., 1996. "If Nonlinear Models Cannot Forecast, What Use Are They?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-24, July.
    33. Alex Maynard & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2001. "Rethinking an old empirical puzzle: econometric evidence on the forward discount anomaly," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 671-708.
    34. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lewis, Karen K., 1993. "Trends in excess returns in currency and bond markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1005-1019, June.
    35. Kenneth A. Froot, 1990. "Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 3247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-38, April.
    37. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
    38. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
    39. Chowdhury, Ibrahim & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2002. "Non-Linear Dynamics in Deviations from the Law of One Price: A Broad-Based Empirical Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 3377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Zivot, Eric, 2000. "Cointegration and forward and spot exchange rate regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 785-812, December.
    41. Hai, Weike & Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Understanding Spot and Forward Exchange Rate Regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(6), pages 715-34, Nov.-Dec..
    42. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August.
    43. Naka, Atsuyuki & Whitney, Gerald, 1995. "The unbiased forward rate hypothesis re-examined," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 857-867, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Yavuz, Nilgun Cil & Guris, Burak & Yilanci, Veli, 2007. "Searching threshold effects in the interest rate: An application to Turkey case," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(2), pages 621-627.

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