Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a new Threshold Unit Root Test
AbstractWe analyze the post-float real exchange rates for a group of OECD countries using the newly developed threshold test and tests for unit roots against stationary but nonlinear alternative by Caner and Hansen ( 2001). These tools help us disentangle the nonlinearity from the nonstationarity rigorously for the first time in the literature. After applying the threshold test and unit root tests: we find evidence for non-linearity of exchange rates. Specifically real exchange rates behave like a unit root in a band and when the depreciation or appreciation of the currency against $US exceeds the boundaries of the band , the real exchange rates are mean-reverting. The threshold value is treated as unknown and estimated in the model.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0512001.
Date of creation: 09 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://126.96.36.199
Other versions of this item:
- Basci Erdem & Caner Mehmet, 2005. "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a New Threshold Unit Root Test," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, December.
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-12-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-ETS-2005-12-14 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-IFN-2005-12-14 (International Finance)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
- Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007.
"Non-Linear Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Production,"
Monash Economics Working Papers
39-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2003:i:1:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
- Qaiser Munir & Kasim Mansur, 2009. "Is Malaysian Stock Market Efficient? Evidence from Threshold Unit Root Tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1359-1370.
- Sofiane Hicham Sekioua, 2003. "The Nominal Exchange Rate and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13.
- Penelope Smith, 2006. "Bayesian Inference for a Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n20, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- David O. Cushman, 2008. "Real exchange rates may have nonlinear trends," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 158-173.
- Sofiane Sekioua, 2004. "The forward unbiasedness hypothesis and the forward premium: a nonlinear analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Adelina Gschwandtner, 2003.
"The competitive environment hypothesis revisited: Nonlinearity, nonstationrity and profit persistence,"
Vienna Economics Papers
0316, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Adelina Gschwandtner, 2006. "The competitive environment hypothesis revisited: non-linearity, nonstationarity and profit persistence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 465-472.
- Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "Central bank intervention, threshold effects and asymmetric volatility: Evidence from the Japanese yen-US dollar foreign exchange market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 628-642, July.
- Qian, Xi-Yuan & Song, Fu-Tie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Nonlinear behaviour of the Chinese SSEC index with a unit root: Evidence from threshold unit root tests," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(2), pages 503-510.
- Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity: The Irish Experience Re-visited," Trinity Economics Papers tep200615, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.