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Unit Root Tests in Three-Regime SETAR Models

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Author Info
George Kapetanios () (Queen Mary, University of London)
Yongcheol Shin (University of Edinburgh)

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Abstract

This paper proposes a simple direct testing procedure to distinguish a linear unit root process from a globally stationary three-regime self-exciting threshold autoregressive process. We derive the asymptotic null distribution of the Wald statistic, and show that it does not depend on unknown fixed threshold values. Monte Carlo evidence clearly indicates that the exponential average of the Wald statistic is more powerful than the Dickey-Fuller test that ignores the threshold nature under the alternative.

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Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 465.

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Date of creation: Nov 2002
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp465

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Related research
Keywords: Self-exciting threshold autoregressive models; Unit roots; Globally stationary processes; Threshold cointegration; Wald tests; Monte Carlo simulations; Real exchange rates;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Zisimos Koustas & Jean-Francois Lamarche & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "Threshold Random Walks in the U.S. Stock Market," Working Papers 0602, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised May 2006. [Downloadable!]
  2. Brian Francis & Sunday Iyare, 2006. "Do exchange rates in caribbean and latin american countries exhibit nonlinearities?," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(14), pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Detecting Multiple Changes in Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 11(3), pages 1370-1370. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rodolphe Blavy & Luciana Juvenal, 2008. "Mexico's integration into NAFTA markets: a view from sectoral real exchange rates," Working Papers 2008-046, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39. [Downloadable!]
  6. Daiki Maki, 2006. "Variance ratio tests for a unit root in the presence of a mean shift: small sample properties and an application to purchasing power parity," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 607-615, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Zisimos Koustas & Jean-Francois Lamarche, 2005. "Policy-Induced Mean Reversion in the Real Interest Rate?," Working Papers 0601, Brock University, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  8. van Tol, Michel R & Wolff, Christian C, 2005. "Forecasting the Spot Exchange Rate with the Term Structure of Forward Premia: Multivariate Threshold Cointegration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Serineh Najarian & H. L. Leon, 2003. "Time-Varying Thresholds: An Application to Purchasing Power Parity," IMF Working Papers 03/181, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  10. Joon Y. Park & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Testing for a Unit Root against Transitional Autoregressive Models," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000316, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Myunghwan Seo, 2005. "Unit Root Test in a Threshold Autoregression: Asymptotic Theory and Residual-based Block Bootstrap," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /2005/484, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Daiki Maki, 2008. "The Performance of Variance Ratio Unit Root Tests Under Nonlinear Stationary TAR and STAR Processes: Evidence from Monte Carlo Simulations and Applications," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 77-94, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jaya Krishnakumar & David Neto, 2005. "Partial Cointegration," Cahiers du Département d'Econométrie 2005.04, Département d'Econométrie, Université de Genève, revised Aug 2006. [Downloadable!]
  14. Rodolphe Blavy & Luciana Juvenal, 2008. "Mexico's Integration into NAFTA Markets: A View from Sectoral Real Exchange Rates and Transaction Costs," IMF Working Papers 08/123, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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