The Nominal Exchange Rate and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests
AbstractIn this paper we model the deviation of the nominal exchange rate from the long run equilibrium level predicted by monetary fundamentals in a nonlinear framework consistent with the presence of transaction costs. In contrast to standard linear methods and studies which test for linearity only, we consider a novel approach that allows for the joint testing of nonlinearity and nonstationarity. Within this approach, we employ nonlinear threshold autoregressive (TAR) unit root tests to investigate whether the deviation of the nominal exchange rate from the level predicted by monetary fundamentals for three major currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar is mean reverting. We are able to reject the null hypotheses of linearity and nonstationarity indicating nonlinear mean reversion of the deviation of the exchange rate from monetary fundamentals. Further, large deviations are found to have faster speed of mean reversion than small deviations.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.
Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001.
"Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John Barkoulas, 1998. "Nonlinear Adjustment to Purchasing Power Parity in the post-Bretton Woods Era," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 404., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Nov 1999.
- Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001.
"Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
- Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-48.
- Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002.
"How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
- Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 2002-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Basci Erdem & Caner Mehmet, 2005.
"Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a New Threshold Unit Root Test,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, December.
- Erdem Basci & Mehmet Caner, 2005. "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a new Threshold Unit Root Test," International Finance 0512001, EconWPA.
- Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
- Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001.
"Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
- Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
- Jan J.J. Groen, 1998.
"The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
98-082/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
- Frédérique BEC & Mélika BEN SALEM & Ronald MACDONALD, 2006.
"Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective,"
Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain)
2006024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 72(2), pages 177-194.
- Bec, F. & Salem, M.B. & MacDonald, R., 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: a nonlinear Perspective," Papers 99-17, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
- F. Bec & M. Ben Salem & R. MacDonald, 1999. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : A nonlinear perspective," THEMA Working Papers 99-17, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997.
"The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.