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The Nominal Exchange Rate and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests

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  • Sofiane Hicham Sekioua

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    (Warwick Business School)

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    Abstract

    In this paper we model the deviation of the nominal exchange rate from the long run equilibrium level predicted by monetary fundamentals in a nonlinear framework consistent with the presence of transaction costs. In contrast to standard linear methods and studies which test for linearity only, we consider a novel approach that allows for the joint testing of nonlinearity and nonstationarity. Within this approach, we employ nonlinear threshold autoregressive (TAR) unit root tests to investigate whether the deviation of the nominal exchange rate from the level predicted by monetary fundamentals for three major currencies vis-à-vis the US dollar is mean reverting. We are able to reject the null hypotheses of linearity and nonstationarity indicating nonlinear mean reversion of the deviation of the exchange rate from monetary fundamentals. Further, large deviations are found to have faster speed of mean reversion than small deviations.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 6 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 1-13

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    Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-03f30002

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    1. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
    2. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 72(2), pages 177-194.
    3. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    4. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
    5. Erdem Basci & Mehmet Caner, 2005. "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a new Threshold Unit Root Test," International Finance 0512001, EconWPA.
    6. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & John Barkoulas, 1998. "Nonlinear Adjustment to Purchasing Power Parity in the post-Bretton Woods Era," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 404., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 16 Nov 1999.
    7. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    8. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
    9. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
    10. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-48.
    11. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
    12. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    13. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 1997. "The Behaviour of Real Exchange Rates During the Post-Bretton Woods Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 1730, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
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