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Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics FrŽdŽrique BEC (CREST-ENSAE)
MŽlika BEN SALEM (OEP, UniversitŽ Marne-la-VallŽe)
Ronald MACDONALD (University of Glasgow)
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In this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture the nonlinear dynamics of monthly real effective exchange rate data for the G7 countries. The novelty of our approach relates to the use of the real interest differential as the switching variable. This choice allows us to consider jointly the nonlinearity and nonstationarity issues using rŽcent advances in asymptotic theory. We find that the null of linearity is easily rejected against the nonlinear model for ail currencies considered. Further, for five out of the seven countries, where the null of unit root is rejected, we report evidence of quite rapid mean reversion.
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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number
2006024.
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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2006Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2006024Contact details of provider: Postal: Place Montesquieu 3, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium) Fax: +32 10473945 Email: Web page: http://www.uclouvain.be/econ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: Real exchange rate ; threshold autoregressive model ; unit-root ; Other versions of this item:
Article Paper F. Bec & M. Ben Salem & R. MacDonald, 1999.
"Real exchange rates and real interest rates : A nonlinear perspective ,"
THEMA Working Papers
99-17, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
Bec, F. & Salem, M.B. & MacDonald, R., 1999.
"Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: a nonlinear Perspective ,"
Papers
99-17, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
Find related papers by JEL classification: F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
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Other versions: Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992.
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Journal of Econometrics ,
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Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991.
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Sofiane Hicham Sekioua, 2003.
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Economics Bulletin ,
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Nicolas Million, 2006.
"Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain ,"
Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques
v06067, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
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G. Dufrenot & L. Mathieu & V. Mignon, & A. Peguin-Feissolle, 2002.
"Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates : some evidence from nonlinear cointegration ,"
THEMA Working Papers
2002-29, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
[Downloadable!]
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