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Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain

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In this article, we analyze the real interest rate series of the three-month Treasury Bill rates in the framework of a SETAR model (Self Exciting Threshold Auto-Regressive). With the aim of disentangling the non-linearity from the non-stationarity cases, we use very recent threshold integration tests against a stationary but non-linear alternative hypothesis. One innovation consists in the introduction of structural breaks in the deterministic part of the process. This long-run representation therefore allows for a time-varying threshold parameter in the model. Empirical results strongly call for non-linear mean reversion effects concerning the real interest rate series during the last fifty years. However, the conclusion of the unit root tests are not so straightforward concerning the hypothesis of stationarity : the real interest rate seems to be stationary only for the lower regime, determined by the estimated threshold.

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Paper provided by Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1) in its series Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques with number v06067.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:mse:wpsorb:v06067

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Keywords: SETAR Model; structural break; real interest rate; switching regime.;

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  1. Garcia, R. & Perron, P., 1994. "An Analysis of the Real Interest rate Under Regime Shifts," Cahiers de recherche 9428, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. DOLADO, J.J. & MARIA-DOLORES, R. & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Nonlinear Monetary Policy Rules: Some New Evidence for the U.S," Cahiers de recherche 18-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  3. Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Level Shift At Unknown Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 313-348, April.
  4. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628.
  5. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-84, November.
  6. Henry, O.T., 1999. "Changes in Regime and the Long Run Fisher Effect: a Threshold Cointegration Analysis," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 720, The University of Melbourne.
  7. Nathan S. Balke & Thomas B. Fomby, 1992. "Threshold cointegration," Research Paper 9209, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
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  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Huizinga, John & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "Monetary policy regime shifts and the unusual behavior of real interest rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 231-274, January.
  13. F. Bec & M. Ben Salem & R. MacDonald, 1999. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : A nonlinear perspective," THEMA Working Papers 99-17, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  14. D H Kim & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2002. "Nonlinearity in the Fed's Monetary Policy Rule," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 18, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  15. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring.
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  17. Hansen, B.E., 1991. "Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis," RCER Working Papers 296, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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