Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective
AbstractIn this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture the nonlinear dynamics of monthly real effective exchange rate data for the G7 countries. The novelty of our approach relates to the use of the real interest differential as the switching variable. This choice allows us to consider jointly the nonlinearity and nonstationarity issues using recent advances in asymptotic theory. We find that the null of linearity is easily rejected against the nonlinear model for all currencies considered. Further, for five out of the seven countries, where the null of unit root is rejected, we report evidence of quite rapid mean reversion.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Boeck Université in its journal Recherches économiques de Louvain.
Volume (Year): 72 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-recherches-economiques-de-louvain.htm
Other versions of this item:
- Bec, F. & Salem, M.B. & MacDonald, R., 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: a nonlinear Perspective," Papers 99-17, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
- F. Bec & M. Ben Salem & R. MacDonald, 1999. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : A nonlinear perspective," THEMA Working Papers 99-17, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Frédérique BEC & Mélika BEN SALEM & Ronald MACDONALD, 2006. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2006024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Lawrence H. Officer, 1982. "The Purchasing-Power-Parity Theory of Gerrard de Malynes," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 256-259, Summer.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988.
"Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
- James G. MacKinnon & Halbert White, 1983.
"Some Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators with Improved Finite Sample Properties,"
537, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- MacKinnon, James G. & White, Halbert, 1985. "Some heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators with improved finite sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 305-325, September.
- Krugman, Paul R, 1991.
"Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
- Schnatz, Bernd & Vijselaar, Focco & Osbat, Chiara, 2003. "Productivity and the ('synthetic') euro-dollar exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0225, European Central Bank.
- Alexius, Annika, 2005. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 555-566, April.
- Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993.
"A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April.
- Hali J. Edison & B. Dianne Pauls, 1991. "Re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," International Finance Discussion Papers 408, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Coughlin, C.C. & Koedijk, C.G., 1990.
"What do we know about the long run real exchange rate?,"
Open Access publications from Tilburg University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-3108738, Tilburg University.
- Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48.
- Ronald MacDonald, 1995.
"Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling - A Survey of the Recent Evidence,"
IMF Working Papers
95/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Ronald Macdonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 437-489, September.
- Hali J. Edison & William R. Melick, 1995.
"Alternative approaches to real exchange rates and real interest rates: three up and three down,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
518, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Edison, Hali J & Melick, William R, 1999. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 93-111, April.
- Shin, Dong Wan & Lee, Oesook, 2001. "Tests for Asymmetry in Possibly Nonstationary Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 233-44, April.
- Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
- Bergman, U. Michael & Hansson, Jesper, 2005. "Real exchange rates and switching regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 121-138, February.
- Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997.
"Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Michael-Nobay-Peel ESTAR models," Statistical Software Components RTZ00113, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. " The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-19, September.
- Henry, Olan T. & Olekalns, Nilss, 2002. "Does the Australian dollar real exchange rate display mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 651-666, October.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2003:i:1:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2006. "Nonlinear adjustment in the forward premium: evidence from a threshold unit root test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 164-183.
- Sofiane Hicham Sekioua, 2003. "The Nominal Exchange Rate and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13.
- Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2008. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the largest root and the half-life," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 76-101, February.
- Benbouziane, Mohamed & Benamar, Abdelhak, 2006. "The Purchasing Power Parity in The Maghreb Countries : A Nonlinear Perspective," MPRA Paper 13853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
- G. Dufrenot & L. Mathieu & V. Mignon, & A. Peguin-Feissolle, 2002.
"Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates : some evidence from nonlinear cointegration,"
THEMA Working Papers
2002-29, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Gilles Dufrenot & Laurent Mathieu & Valerie Mignon & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2006. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates: some evidence from non-linear cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 203-229.
- Gilles DUFRENOT & Laurent MATHIEU & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchanges rates: some evidence from nonlinear cointegration," International Finance 0309003, EconWPA.
- Nicolas Million, 2006.
"Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain,"
UniversitÃ© Paris1 PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
- Nicolas Million, 2006. "Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v06067, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- Million, N., 2008. "Test simultané de la non-stationnarité et de la non-linéarité : une application au taux d.intérêt réel américain," Working papers 201, Banque de France.
- Penelope Smith, 2006. "Bayesian Inference for a Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n20, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- Sofiane Sekioua, 2004. "The forward unbiasedness hypothesis and the forward premium: a nonlinear analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.