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Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective

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Author Info
Frédérique Bec
Mélika Ben Salem
Ronald MacDonald

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Abstract

In this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture the nonlinear dynamics of monthly real effective exchange rate data for the G7 countries. The novelty of our approach relates to the use of the real interest differential as the switching variable. This choice allows us to consider jointly the nonlinearity and nonstationarity issues using recent advances in asymptotic theory. We find that the null of linearity is easily rejected against the nonlinear model for all currencies considered. Further, for five out of the seven countries, where the null of unit root is rejected, we report evidence of quite rapid mean reversion.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by De Boeck Université in its journal Recherches économiques de Louvain.

Volume (Year): 72 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 177-194
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Handle: RePEc:cai:reldbu:rel_722_0177

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edison, Hali J & Melick, William R, 1999. "Alternative Approaches to Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: Three Up and Three Down," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 93-111, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. " The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-19, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  6. Henry, Olan T. & Olekalns, Nilss, 2002. "Does the Australian dollar real exchange rate display mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 651-666, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Alexius, Annika, 2005. "Productivity shocks and real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 555-566, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Shin, Dong Wan & Lee, Oesook, 2001. "Tests for Asymmetry in Possibly Nonstationary Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 233-44, April.
  10. Bergman, U. Michael & Hansson, Jesper, 2005. "Real exchange rates and switching regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 121-138, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling - A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 2000. "Additional Results on the Power of Unit Root and Cointegration Tests under Threshold Processes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(10), pages 641-44, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cletus C. Coughlin & Kees Koedijk, 1990. "What do we know about the long-run real exchange rate?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 36-48. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bernd Schnatz & Chiara Osbat, 2003. "Productivity and the ('Synthetic') Euro-dollar exchange rate," Working Paper Series 225, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. G. Dufrenot & L. Mathieu & V. Mignon, & A. Peguin-Feissolle, 2002. "Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates : some evidence from nonlinear cointegration," THEMA Working Papers 2002-29, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Sofiane Hicham Sekioua, 2003. "The Nominal Exchange Rate and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nicolas Million, 2006. "Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v06067, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
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