In this paper we use a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) model to capture the nonlinear dynamics of monthly real effective exchange rate data for the G7 countries. The novelty of our approach relates to the use of the real interest differential as the switching variable. This choice allows us to consider jointly the nonlinearity and nonstationarity issues using recent advances in asymptotic theory. We find that the null of linearity is easily rejected against the nonlinear model for all currencies considered. Further, for five out of the seven countries, where the null of unit root is rejected, we report evidence of quite rapid mean reversion.
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Article provided by De Boeck Université in its journal Recherches économiques de Louvain.
Volume (Year): 72 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 177-194
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- FrŽdŽrique BEC & MŽlika BEN SALEM & Ronald MACDONALD, 2006.
"Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective,"
Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain)
2006024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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- F. Bec & M. Ben Salem & R. MacDonald, 1999.
"Real exchange rates and real interest rates : A nonlinear perspective,"
THEMA Working Papers
99-17, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
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referencesCited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
- G. Dufrenot & L. Mathieu & V. Mignon, & A. Peguin-Feissolle, 2002.
"Persistent misalignments of the European exchange rates : some evidence from nonlinear cointegration,"
THEMA Working Papers
2002-29, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
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Other versions: - Sofiane Hicham Sekioua, 2003.
"The Nominal Exchange Rate and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests,"
Economics Bulletin,
Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(1), pages 1-13.
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- Nicolas Million, 2006.
"Changements de régime pour la persistance et la dynamique du taux d'intérêt réel américain,"
Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques
v06067, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
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