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Nonlinear behaviour of the Chinese SSEC index with a unit root: Evidence from threshold unit root tests

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  • Qian, Xi-Yuan
  • Song, Fu-Tie
  • Zhou, Wei-Xing
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    Abstract

    We have investigated the behaviour of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index for the period from 1990:12 to 2007:06 using an unconstrained two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with a unit root developed by Caner and Hansen. The method allows us to simultaneously consider nonstationarity and nonlinearity in time series that has regime switching. Our finding indicates that the Shanghai stock market exhibits nonlinear behaviour with two regimes and has unit roots in both regimes. The important implications of the threshold effect in stock markets are also discussed.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437107010060
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 387 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 503-510

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:387:y:2008:i:2:p:503-510

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    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

    Related research

    Keywords: Threshold autoregressive (TAR) model; Unit root; Chinese stock market; Regime change; Crashes;

    References

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    1. Johansen, Anders, 2003. "Characterization of large price variations in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 157-166.
    2. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    3. D. Sornette, 2003. "Critical Market Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0301543, arXiv.org.
    4. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2006. "Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 153-168.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Are the Australian and New Zealand stock prices nonlinear with a unit root?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(18), pages 2161-2166.
    6. Basci Erdem & Caner Mehmet, 2005. "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a New Threshold Unit Root Test," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, December.
    7. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1998. "Stock market crashes are outliers," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 141-143, January.
    8. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2006. "The behaviour of US stock prices: Evidence from a threshold autoregressive model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 103-108.
    11. Shively, Philip A., 2003. "The nonlinear dynamics of stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 505-517.
    12. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004. "Antibubble and prediction of China's stock market and real-estate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 243-268.
    13. Basci Erdem & Caner Mehmet & Yoon Gawon, 2006. "Corrigendum to "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Non-Stationary? Evidence from a New Threshold Unit Root Test"," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 1-6, May.
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    Cited by:
    1. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yun Cao, 2010. "Stock market prices in China. Efficiency, mean reversion, long memory volatility and other implicit dynamics," Faculty Working Papers 12/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    2. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gozbasi, Onur & Kucukkaplan, Ilhan & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Re-examining the Turkish stock market efficiency: Evidence from nonlinear unit root tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 381-384.
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2010. "Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 49-58, January.

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