Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Predictability of large future changes in major financial indices

Contents:

Author Info

  • D. Sornette

    (CNRS-Univ. Nice and UCLA)

  • W. -X. Zhou

    (UCLA)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    We present a systematic algorithm testing for the existence of collective self-organization in the behavior of agents in social systems, with a concrete empirical implementation on the Dow Jones Industrial Average index (DJIA) over the 20th century and on Hong Kong Hang Seng composite index (HSI) since 1969. The algorithm combines ideas from critical phenomena, the impact of agents' expectation, multi-scale analysis and the mathematical method of pattern recognition of sparse data. Trained on the three major crashes in DJIA of the century, our algorithm exhibits a remarkable ability for generalization and detects in advance 8 other significant drops or changes of regimes. An application to HSI gives promising results as well. The results are robust with respect to the variations of the recognition algorithm. We quantify the prediction procedure with error diagrams.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0304601
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/0304601.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: Apr 2003
    Date of revision: Aug 2004
    Publication status: Published in International Journal of Forecasting 22 (2006) 153-168
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0304601

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://arxiv.org/

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. William A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to randomness in the economy: Emergent nonlinearity and chaos in economics and finance," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 3-55.
    2. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    3. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2003. "Evidence of a worldwide stock market log-periodic anti-bubble since mid-2000," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 330(3), pages 543-583.
    4. Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988. "Herd behavior and investment," Working papers WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    5. Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2002. "The US 2000-2002 market descent: How much longer and deeper?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 468-481.
    6. Mansilla, R., 2001. "Algorithmic complexity of real financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 301(1), pages 483-492.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    8. Eugene F. Fama, . "Market Efficiency, Long-term Returns, and Behavioral Finance," CRSP working papers 340, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    9. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-68, July.
    10. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 1998. "Stock market crashes are outliers," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 141-143, January.
    11. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02.
    12. Sornette, D & Takayasu, H & Zhou, W.-X, 2003. "Finite-time singularity signature of hyperinflation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 325(3), pages 492-506.
    13. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    14. Orlean, Andre, 1995. "Bayesian interactions and collective dynamics of opinion: Herd behavior and mimetic contagion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 257-274, October.
    15. W. -X. Zhou & D. Sornette, 2002. "Evidence of a Worldwide Stock Market Log-Periodic Anti-Bubble Since Mid-2000," Papers cond-mat/0212010, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2003.
    16. Eugene White & Frederic Mishkin, 2002. "U.S.Stock Market Crashes and Their Aftermath: Implications for Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 200208, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    17. D. Sornette, 2003. "Critical Market Crashes," Papers cond-mat/0301543, arXiv.org.
    18. Ide, Kayo & Sornette, Didier, 2002. "Oscillatory finite-time singularities in finance, population and rupture," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 63-106.
    19. Graf v. Bothmer, Hans-Christian & Meister, Christian, 2003. "Predicting critical crashes? A new restriction for the free variables," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 539-547.
    20. Brock, William A., 2000. "Whither nonlinear?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 663-678, June.
    21. Johansen, Anders, 2003. "Characterization of large price variations in financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 157-166.
    22. D. Sornette & W. -X. Zhou, 2002. "The US 2000-2002 Market Descent: How Much Longer and Deeper?," Papers cond-mat/0209065, arXiv.org.
    23. D. Sornette & H. Takayasu & W. -X. Zhou, 2003. "Finite-Time Singularity Signature of Hyperinflation," Papers physics/0301007, arXiv.org.
    24. Cecen, A. Aydin & Erkal, Cahit, 1996. "Distinguishing between stochastic and deterministic behavior in high frequency foreign exchange rate returns: Can non-linear dynamics help forecasting?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 465-473, December.
    25. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Lukáš Vácha & Miloslav S. Vošvrda, 2005. "Dynamical Agents' Strategies and the Fractal Market Hypothesis," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(2), pages 163-170.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0304601. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.