Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks
AbstractThis paper investigates whether the efficient market hypothesis holds in stock markets under different economic development levels over the period January 1999 to May 2007. We employ a state-of-the-art panel data stationarity test which incorporates multiple structural breaks. Evidence indicates that when accommodating general forms of cross-sectional dependence as well as controlling for finite-sample bias, the real stock price series appear to be stationary in 32 developed and 26 developing countries, respectively, which is in sharp contrast to the findings in the existing literature. Thus, real stock price indices are stationary processes that are inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. This shows the presence of profitable arbitrage opportunities among stock markets. According to these estimated structural breakpoints, we are also able to discover the reason for why there has been a huge impact from past stock prices.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Japan and the World Economy.
Volume (Year): 22 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557
Real stock price Panel data stationarity test Multiple structural breaks Efficient market hypothesis Unit root;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Qi, Min, 1999. "Nonlinear Predictability of Stock Returns Using Financial and Economic Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 419-29, October.
- Zarowin, Paul, 1990. "Size, Seasonality, and Stock Market Overreaction," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 113-125, March.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, .
"Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-Economic Data,"
170, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, 2004. "Some cautions on the use of panel methods for integrated series of macroeconomic data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 322-340, December.
- Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
- Christiano, Lawrence J, 1992.
"Searching for a Break in GNP,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 237-50, July.
- Chan, K C, 1988. "On the Contrarian Investment Strategy," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 147-63, April.
- Perron, P, 1988.
"The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis,"
338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Josep Llu�s Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tom�s del Barrio-Castro & Enrique L�pez-Bazo, 2005.
"Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, 07.
- Josep Lluis Carrion Silvestre & Tomas del Barrio Castro & Enrique Lopez Bazo, 2003. "Breaking the panels. An application to the GDP per capita," Working Papers in Economics 97, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
- Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002.
"Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Tom Doan, . "LEVINLIN: RATS procedure to perform Levin-Lin-Chu test for unit roots in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00242, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2007. "Mean reversion in stock prices: new evidence from panel unit root tests," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 233-244, September.
- Kyung-So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit-root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, 06.
- Anthony J. Richards, 1997.
"Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices - Can They be Explained?,"
IMF Working Papers
97/182, International Monetary Fund.
- Richards, Anthony J, 1997. " Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices: Can They Be Explained?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 2129-44, December.
- Choudhry, Taufiq, 1997. "Stochastic Trends in Stock Prices: Evidence from Latin American Markets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 285-304, April.
- Hooi Hooi Lean & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Do Asian Stock Markets Follow a Random Walk? Evidence from LM Unit Root Tests with One and Two Structural Breaks," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 15-31.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, .
"Testing for PPP: Should We Use Panel Methods?,"
186, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:34:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kaddour Hadri, 1999.
"Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data,"
1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
- Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
- Qian, Xi-Yuan & Song, Fu-Tie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2008. "Nonlinear behaviour of the Chinese SSEC index with a unit root: Evidence from threshold unit root tests," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(2), pages 503-510.
- Chaudhuri, Kausik & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Random walk versus breaking trend in stock prices: Evidence from emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 575-592, April.
- Brennan, Michael J & Cao, H Henry, 1997.
" International Portfolio Investment Flows,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1851-80, December.
- Kawakatsu, Hiroyuki & Morey, Matthew R, 1999. "An Empirical Examination of Financial Liberalization and the Efficiency of Emerging Market Stock Prices," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 385-411, Winter.
- Paolo Mauro, 2000.
"Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies,"
IMF Working Papers
00/89, International Monetary Fund.
- Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
- Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001.
"Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
- Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999.
"Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
- Tom Doan, . "HTUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Harris-Tzavalis unit root test for panel data," Statistical Software Components RTS00092, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1995. "Problems in measuring portfolio performance An application to contrarian investment strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 79-107, May.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 547-556.
- Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Are the Australian and New Zealand stock prices nonlinear with a unit root?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(18), pages 2161-2166.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July.
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
- Kanas, Angelos, 2001. "Neural Network Linear Forecasts for Stock Returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 245-54, July.
- Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Mean reversion versus random walk in G7 stock prices evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 152-166, April.
- Bose, Niloy, 2005. "Endogenous growth and the emergence of equity finance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 173-188, June.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
- Rico Belda, Paz, 2013. "No linealidad y asimetría en el proceso generador del Índice Ibex35/Nonlinearity and Asymmetry in the Generator Process of Ibex35 Index," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 31, pages 555-576, Septiembr.
- Mihaela Nicolau, 2010.
"Practitioners' Tools in Analysing Financial Markets Evolution,"
Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica,
Danubius University of Galati, issue 3(3), pages 83-104, August.
- Nicolau, Mihaela, 2010. "Practitioners' tools in analysing financial markets evolution," MPRA Paper 25646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.