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Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustments

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Author Info
Yin-wong Cheung (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Kon S. Lai (California State University, Los Angeles)
Michael Bergman (Lund University)

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Abstract

The conventional view, as expounded by sticky-price models, is that price adjustment determines the PPP reversion rate. This study examines the mechanism by which PPP deviations are corrected. Nominal exchange rate adjustment, not price adjustment, is shown to be the key engine governing the speed of PPP convergence. Moreover, nominal exchange rates are found to converge much more slowly than prices. With the reversion being driven primarily by nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates also revert at a slower rate than prices, as identified by the PPP puzzle (Rogoff, 1996).

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 102003.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:102003

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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  4. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M, 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 1672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "Real exchange rate, stationarity, and economic fundamentals," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 393-409, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Qian Chen & David E. Giles, 2007. "A Saddlepoint Approximation to the Distribution of the Half-Life Estimator in an Autoregressive Model: New Insights Into the PPP Puzzle," Econometrics Working Papers 0703, Department of Economics, University of Victoria. [Downloadable!]
  4. Cheng Hsiao & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang & Qi Li, 2006. "The emerging market crisis and stock market linkages: further evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(6), pages 727-744. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2005. "Nominal Exchange Rate Flexibility and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment: Evidence from Dual Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  6. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R.P & Yamagata. T. & Hvozdyk, L., 2006. "Pairwise Tests of Purchasing Power Parity Using Aggregate and Disaggregate Price Measures," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0634, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Michael Bleaney, 2008. "Openness and Real Exchange Rate Volatility: In Search of an Explanation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 135-146, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg & Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2009. "A Resolution of the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: Imperfect Knowledge and Long Swings," CREATES Research Papers 2009-01, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007. "Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems," MPRA Paper 9174, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hyeongwoo, Kim, 2009. "Generalized Impulse Response Analysis: General or Extreme?," MPRA Paper 17014, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  11. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 768, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Iwatsubo, Kentaro, 2006. "Adjustment Speeds of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices toward Purchasing Power Parity," CEI Working Paper Series 2005-11, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  15. D. Johannes Juttner & Wayne Leung, 2004. "Currency hedging of global portfolios - a closer examination of some of the ingredients," Research Papers 0411, Macquarie University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Guy Meredith, 2003. "Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting: What Can We Expect?," IMF Working Papers 03/21, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2002. "The Exchange Rate in a Model with Heterogeneous Agents and Transactions Costs," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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