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Forward Premiums and Market Efficiency: Panel Unit-root Evidence from the Term Structure of Forward Premiums Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics John T. Barkoulas () (University of Tennessee)
Christopher F. Baum () (Boston College, DIW Berlin)
Atreya Chakraborty (University of Massachusetts-Boston)
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A plausible explanation for cointegration among spot currency rates determined in efficient markets is the existence of a stationary, time-varying currency risk premium. Such an interpretation is contingent upon stationarity of the forward premium. However, empirical evidence on the stochastic properties of the forward premium series has been inconclusive. We apply a panel unit-root test--the Johansen likelihood ratio (JLR) test--to forward exchange premiums by utilizing cross-sectional information from their term structure. In contrast to earlier studies, the JLR test provides decisive and temporally stable evidence in support of stationary forward premiums, and therefore foreign exchange market efficiency, for six major currencies.
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Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number
461.
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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 09 Jun 2000Date of revision:
13 Jun 2001Publication status: Published, Journal of Macroeconomics, 25(1), 109-122, 2003Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:461Contact details of provider: Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA Phone: 617-552-3670 Fax: +1-617-552-2308 Email: Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/ More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F Baum).
Keywords: Forward premium ; currency risk premium ; panel unit-root tests ; foreign exchange market efficiency ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Michael Kühl, 2007.
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