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A Re-examination of the Fragility of Evidence from Cointegration- Based Tests of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency

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Author Info
John Barkoulas () (Louisiana Tech University)
Christopher F. Baum () (Boston College)

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Abstract

We re-examine Sephton and Larsen's (1991) conclusion that cointegration-based tests for market efficiency suffer from temporal instability. We improve upon their research by i) including a drift term in the vector error correction model (VECM) in the Johansen procedure, ii) correcting the likelihood ratio test statistic for finite-sample bias, and iii) fitting the model over longer data sets. We show that instability of the Johansen cointegration tests mostly disappears after accounting for these two factors. The evidence is even more stable in favor of no cointegration when we apply our analysis to longer data sets.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 311..

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 1996
Date of revision:
Publication status: published, Applied Financial Economics, 1997, 7:635-643.
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:311

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Related research
Keywords: cointegration; foreign exchange; market efficiency;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Craig S. Hakkio & Mark Rush, 1987. "Market efficiency and cointegration," Research Working Paper 87-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. " On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-35, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  8. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange RAte Dynamics," Papers 9103, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
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  10. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Sephton, Peter S, 1994. "Cointegration Tests on MARS," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, February.
  12. Bossaerts, Peter, 1988. "Common nonstationary components of asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 347-364. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Dwyer, Gerald Jr. & Wallace, Myles S., 1992. "Cointegration and market efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 318-327, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Sephton, Peter S. & Larsen, Hans K., 1991. "Tests of exchange market efficiency: fragile evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 561-570, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Cerchi, Marlene & Havenner, Arthur, 1988. "Cointegration and stock prices : The random walk on wall street revisited," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 333-346. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jérôme Héricourt & Julien Reynaud, 2006. "La crise monétaire turque de 2000/2001 : analyse de l'échec du plan de stabilisation par le change du FMI," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Heejoon Kang, 1999. "The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 325-346, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David G. McMillan, 2005. "Cointegrating behaviour between spot and forward exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(16), pages 1135-1144, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael Kühl, 2007. "Cointegration in the Foreign Exchange Market and Market Efficiency since the Introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate Cointegration Analyses," cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 68, cege – Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany).. [Downloadable!]
  5. Angela J. Black & David G. McMillan, 2004. "Long run trends and volatility spillovers in daily exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 895-907, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Eric Zivot, 1998. "Cointegration and Forward and Spot Exchange Rate Regressions," Econometrics 9812001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  7. Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2002. "The stable long-run CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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