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Short Rates and Expected Asset Returns

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Author Info
Kenneth A. Froot

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Abstract

We present evidence that short-term interest rates forecast excess returns on many alternative assets: foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and commodities. On average, a one percentage-point increase in short rates is associated with three percent lower annualized excess returns. To test whether this predictability is attributable to time-varying risk, independent measures of excess returns are formed using survey data on expected returns. We find similar predictability in these measures, too. Since the surveys don't include risk premia, the predictable components cannot be attributed to risk. We suggest that when short rates are high (low) investors are excessively optimistic (pessimistic) about alternative-asset returns.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3247.

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Date of creation: Jan 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3247

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  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 133-53, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Ferson, Wayne E, 1989. " Changes in Expected Security Returns, Risk, and the Level of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1191-1217, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. French, Kenneth R, 1986. "Detecting Spot Price Forecasts in Futures Prices," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages S39-54, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1987. "Interest rates and risk premia in the stock market and in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 107-123, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Lee, Byung-Joo, 2007. "Uncovered Interest Parity: Cross-sectional Evidence," MPRA Paper 10360, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. J.M. Berk & K.H.W. Knot, 1999. "Co-Movements in Long-Term Interest Rates and the Role of PPP-BasedExchange Rate Expectations," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 37, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Kugler, Peter & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2005. "Why Are Returns on Swiss Franc Assets So Low? Rare Events May Solve the Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5181, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Peter Rowland, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Parity And The Usd/Cop Exchange Rate," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003733, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sylvain Leduc, 2000. "Incomplete markets, borrowing constraints, and the foreign exchange risk premium," Working Papers 00-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Peter Rowland, . "Uncovered Interest Parity and the USD/COP Echange Rate," Borradores de Economia 227, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  8. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Jerome Fahrer & Alexandra Heath, 1993. "Major Influences on the Australian Dollar Exchange Rate," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Adrian Blundell-Wignall (ed.), The Exchange Rate, International Trade and the Balance of Payments Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 3790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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