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A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

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Author Info
Hyoung-Seok Lim () (The Ohio State University.)
Masao Ogaki () (The Ohio State University.)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to construct a model of exchange rate determination that is consistent with the stylized facts regarding the uncovered interest parity for short term and long term interest rates. This task is especially challenging because of the forward premium anomaly found for short term interest rates and forward exchange rates. With an assumption that investors have a short investment horizon, the model is consistent with these stylized facts even when the degree of risk aversion is low. The model predicts a complicated relationship between exchange rates and the term structure of the interest rates.

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File URL: http://rcer.econ.rochester.edu/RCERPAPERS/rcer_504.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER) in its series RCER Working Papers with number 504.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:roc:rocher:504

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Postal: UNIVERSITY OF ROCHESTER, CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, HARKNESS 231 ROCHESTER NEW YORK 14627 U.S.A.

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Related research
Keywords: forward premium anomaly; uncovered interest parity for long term bonds;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Alexius, Annika, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(3), pages 505-17, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Popper, Helen, 1993. "Long-term covered interest parity: evidence from currency swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 439-448, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Masao Ogaki & Young Hwan Byeon, 1999. "A Empirical Investigation of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 99-20, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    Other versions:
  8. Blanchard, Olivier J & Plantes, Mary Kay, 1977. "A Note on Gross Substitutability of Financial Assets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(3), pages 769-71, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  10. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Masao Ogaki, 1999. "A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 99-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Chinn, Menzie & Meredith, Guy, 2000. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons," Discussion Paper Series 26355, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Hyoung-Seok Lim & Masao Ogaki, 2003. "A Theory of Exchange Rates and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," RCER Working Papers 504, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2003. "Structural Error Correction Models: Instrumental Variables Methods and an application to an exchange rate model," RCER Working Papers 502, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
  4. Leo Krippner, 2006. "A Yield Curve Perspective on Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers in Economics 06/16, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kim, Jaebeom & Ogaki, Masao, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity for Traded and Non-traded Goods: A Structural Error Correction Model Approach," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(1), pages 1-25, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Shu Wu, 2005. "Interest Rate Risk and the Forward Premium Anomaly in Foreign Exchange Markets," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200519, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
  7. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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