IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v442y2016icp329-342.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systemic risk measures

Author

Listed:
  • Guerra, Solange Maria
  • Silva, Thiago Christiano
  • Tabak, Benjamin Miranda
  • de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés
  • de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César

Abstract

In this paper we present systemic risk measures based on contingent claims approach and banking sector multivariate density. We also apply network measures to analyze bank common risk exposure. The proposed measures aim to capture credit risk stress and its potential to become systemic. These indicators capture not only individual bank vulnerability, but also the stress dependency structure between them. Furthermore, these measures can be quite useful for identifying systemically important banks. The empirical results show that these indicators capture with considerable fidelity the moments of increasing systemic risk in the Brazilian banking sector in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerra, Solange Maria & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & de Souza Penaloza, Rodrigo Andrés & de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo César, 2016. "Systemic risk measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 442(C), pages 329-342.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:442:y:2016:i:c:p:329-342
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.09.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437115007402
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2015.09.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Puzanova, Natalia & Düllmann, Klaus, 2013. "Systemic risk contributions: A credit portfolio approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1243-1257.
    2. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Luduvice, André Victor D. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2011. "Modeling default probabilities: The case of Brazil," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 513-534, October.
    3. De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
    4. Charles Goodhart & Miguel Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," FMG Discussion Papers dp627, Financial Markets Group.
    5. Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2009. "Banking Stability Measures," IMF Working Papers 2009/004, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Takami, Marcelo & Rocha, Jadson M.C. & Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Souza, Sergio R.S., 2014. "Directed clustering coefficient as a measure of systemic risk in complex banking networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 211-216.
    7. Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut & Ömercikoğlu, Inci & Saltoğlu, Burak, 2014. "Network centrality measures and systemic risk: An application to the Turkish financial crisis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 203-215.
    8. De Jonghe, O.G., 2009. "Back to Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability," Discussion Paper 2009-45 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2012. "Assessing the systemic risk of a heterogeneous portfolio of banks during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 193-205.
    10. Vazquez, Francisco & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Souto, Marcos, 2012. "A macro stress test model of credit risk for the Brazilian banking sector," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 69-83.
    11. Marcos Souto & Benjamin M. Tabak & Francisco Vazquez, 2009. "Linking Financial and Macroeconomic Factors to Credit Risk Indicators of Brazilian Banks," Working Papers Series 189, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    12. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    13. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    14. Segoviano, Miguel A. & Goodhart, Charles, 2009. "Banking stability measures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24416, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Souza, Sergio R.S. & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Silva, Thiago C. & Guerra, Solange M., 2015. "Insolvency and contagion in the Brazilian interbank market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 431(C), pages 140-151.
    16. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    18. G. Bonanno & G. Caldarelli & F. Lillo & S. Micciché & N. Vandewalle & R. Mantegna, 2004. "Networks of equities in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 38(2), pages 363-371, March.
    19. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2017. "Monitoring vulnerability and impact diffusion in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 109-135.
    20. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco de A., 2014. "Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 81-101.
    21. Claudio Borio & Craig Furfine & Philip Lowe, 2001. "Procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability: issues and policy options," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Marrying the macro- and micro-prudential dimensions of financial stability, volume 1, pages 1-57, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2013. "Complex networks and banking systems supervision," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(19), pages 4429-4434.
    23. De Jonghe, O.G., 2009. "Back to Basics in Banking? A Micro-Analysis of Banking System Stability," Other publications TiSEM 9650fd91-53ee-4ed5-9786-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    24. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
    25. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Fazio, Dimas M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2013. "Systemically important banks and financial stability: The case of Latin America," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3855-3866.
    26. Dale F. Gray & Robert C. Merton & Zvi Bodie, 2007. "New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability," NBER Working Papers 13607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    28. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent Information Multivariate Density Optimizing Methodology," FMG Discussion Papers dp557, Financial Markets Group.
    29. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Constantino, Michel & Candido, Osvaldo & Tabak, Benjamin M. & da Costa, Reginaldo Brito, 2017. "Modeling stochastic frontier based on vine copulas," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 595-609.
    2. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Guerra, Solange Maria, 2017. "Why do vulnerability cycles matter in financial networks?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 592-606.
    3. Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Guerra, Solange Maria, 2016. "Evaluating systemic risk using bank default probabilities in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 54-75.
    4. Juan Eberhard & Jaime F. Lavín & Alejandro Montecinos-Pearce & José Arenas, 2019. "Analyzing Stock Brokers’ Trading Patterns: A Network Decomposition and Spatial Econometrics Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-18, July.
    5. Juan Eberhard & Jaime F. Lavin & Alejandro Montecinos-Pearce, 2017. "A Network-Based Dynamic Analysis in an Equity Stock Market," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-16, November.
    6. Ghufran Ahmad & Muhammad Suhail Rizwan & Dawood Ashraf, 2021. "Systemic risk and macroeconomic forecasting: A globally applicable copula‐based approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1420-1443, December.
    7. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Guerra, Solange Maria & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2020. "Fiscal risk and financial fragility," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    8. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Cajueiro, Daniel Oliveira & Dias, Marina Villas Boas, 2017. "A comparison of DEA and SFA using micro- and macro-level perspectives: Efficiency of Chinese local banks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 216-223.
    9. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Dias, Felipe A.M. & dos Reis, Vinicius E. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2022. "The role of network topology in competition and ticket pricing in air transportation: Evidence from Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 601(C).
    10. Machado, Vicente da Gama & Portugal, Marcelo Savino, 2014. "Measuring inflation persistence in Brazil using a multivariate model," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(2), June.
    11. Barroso, João Barata Ribeiro Blanco & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de, 2018. "Identifying systemic risk drivers in financial networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 650-674.
    12. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Coelho, Florângela Cunha & Ehrl, Philipp & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2020. "Internet access in recessionary periods: The case of Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 537(C).
    13. da Rosa München, Douglas, 2022. "The effect of financial distress on capital structure: The case of Brazilian banks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 296-304.
    14. João Barata Ribeiro Blanco Barroso & Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza & Solange Maria Guerra, 2016. "Systemic Risk-Taking Channel of Domestic and Foreign Monetary Policy," Working Papers Series 412, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Jacob Kleinow & Tobias Nell, 2015. "Determinants of systemically important banks: the case of Europe," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(4), pages 446-476, November.
    16. Saidane, Dhafer & Sène, Babacar & Désiré Kanga, Kouamé, 2021. "Pan-African banks, banking interconnectivity: A new systemic risk measure in the WAEMU," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Wang, Xiaoting & Hou, Siyuan & Shen, Jie, 2021. "Default clustering of the nonfinancial sector and systemic risk: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 196-208.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato de & Silva, Thiago Christiano & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Guerra, Solange Maria, 2016. "Evaluating systemic risk using bank default probabilities in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 54-75.
    2. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco de A., 2014. "Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 81-101.
    3. Saidane, Dhafer & Sène, Babacar & Désiré Kanga, Kouamé, 2021. "Pan-African banks, banking interconnectivity: A new systemic risk measure in the WAEMU," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Wang, Xiaoting & Hou, Siyuan & Shen, Jie, 2021. "Default clustering of the nonfinancial sector and systemic risk: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 196-208.
    5. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    6. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2014. "A framework for tracking changes in the intensity of investment funds' systemic risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 343-368.
    7. Antonio Di Cesare & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2018. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Indicators," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 458, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Rodríguez-Moreno, María & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Systemic risk measures: The simpler the better?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1817-1831.
    9. Nadal De Simone, Francisco, 2021. "Measuring the deadly embrace: Systemic and sovereign risks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    10. Ghufran Ahmad & Muhammad Suhail Rizwan & Dawood Ashraf, 2021. "Systemic risk and macroeconomic forecasting: A globally applicable copula‐based approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1420-1443, December.
    11. Puzanova, Natalia & Düllmann, Klaus, 2013. "Systemic risk contributions: A credit portfolio approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1243-1257.
    12. Segoviano, Miguel & Espinoza, Raphael, 2017. "Consistent measures of systemic risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118947, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Löffler, Gunter & Raupach, Peter, 2013. "Robustness and informativeness of systemic risk measures," Discussion Papers 04/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "A vine-copula conditional value-at-risk approach to systemic sovereign debt risk for the financial sector," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 98-123.
    16. Wong, Alfred Y-T. & Fong, Tom Pak Wing, 2011. "Analysing interconnectivity among economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 432-442.
    17. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    18. Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/146, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    20. Zineddine Alla & Mr. Raphael A Espinoza & Qiaoluan H. Li & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2018. "Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses," IMF Working Papers 2018/049, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:442:y:2016:i:c:p:329-342. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.