Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Modeling Default Probabilities: the case of Brazil

Contents:

Author Info

  • Benjamin M. Tabak
  • Daniel O. Cajueiro
  • A. Luduvice

Abstract

Using disaggregated data from the Brazilian stock market, we calculate default probabilities for 30 different economic sectors. Empirical results suggest that domestic macroeconomic factors can explain these default probabilities. In addition, we construct the Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) and the ultrametric hierarchical tree with the MST based on default probabilities to disclose common trends, which reveals that some sectors form clusters. The results of this paper imply that macroeconomic variables have distinct effects on default probabilities, which is important to take into account in credit risk modeling and the generation of stress test scenarios.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps232.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 232.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:232

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Glenn Hoggarth & Ricardo Reis & Victoria Saporta, 2001. "Costs of banking system instability: some empirical evidence," Bank of England working papers 144, Bank of England.
  2. Berardi, Andrea & Ciraolo, Stefania & Trova, Michele, 2004. "Predicting default probabilities and implementing trading strategies for emerging markets bond portfolios," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 447-469, December.
  3. John Ammer & Frank Packer, 2000. "How consistent are credit ratings? a geographic and sectoral analysis of default risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 668, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Byström , Hans & Worasinchai , Lugkana & Chongsithipol , Srisuda, 2004. "Default Risk, Systematic Risk and Thai Firms Before, During and After the Asian Crisis," Working Papers 2005:5, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  5. T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & R. N. Mantegna, 2004. "An interest rates cluster analysis," Papers cond-mat/0401443, arXiv.org.
  6. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joel, 2004. "Should SME exposures be treated as retail or corporate exposures? A comparative analysis of default probabilities and asset correlations in French and German SMEs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 773-788, April.
  7. Angkinand, Apanard P., 2009. "Banking regulation and the output cost of banking crises," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 240-257, April.
  8. Di Matteo, T. & Aste, T. & Hyde, S.T. & Ramsden, S., 2005. "Interest rates hierarchical structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 21-33.
  9. Ray Barrell & Professor E. Philip Davis, 2004. "Costs of Financial Instability, Household-Sector Balance Sheets and Consumption," NIESR Discussion Papers 99, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  10. Daniel O. Cajueiro & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "The role of banks in the Brazilian Interbank Market: Does bank type matter?," Working Papers Series 130, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  12. Nier, Erlend & Yang, Jing & Yorulmazer, Tanju & Alentorn, Amadeo, 2008. "Network models and financial stability," Bank of England working papers 346, Bank of England.
  13. Ackermann, Josef, 2008. "The subprime crisis and its consequences," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 329-337, December.
  14. Michael Boss & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Contagion Flow Through Banking Networks," Papers cond-mat/0403167, arXiv.org.
  15. Ricardo Coehlo & Claire Gilmore & Brian M. Lucey, 2006. "The Evolution of Interdependence in World Equity Markets - Evidence from Minimum Spanning Trees," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp142, IIIS.
  16. Rosario N. Mantegna, 1998. "Hierarchical Structure in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/9802256, arXiv.org.
  17. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  18. Clare, Andrew & Priestley, Richard, 2002. "Calculating the probability of failure of the Norwegian banking sector," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 21-40, February.
  19. Huang, Wei-Qiang & Zhuang, Xin-Tian & Yao, Shuang, 2009. "A network analysis of the Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(14), pages 2956-2964.
  20. Iori, Giulia & Jafarey, Saqib & Padilla, Francisco G., 2006. "Systemic risk on the interbank market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 525-542, December.
  21. Andrew Clare & Richard Priestley, . "Risk factors in the Malaysian stock market," CERF Discussion Paper Series 97-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  22. Aharony, Joseph & Swary, Itzhak, 1996. "Additional evidence on the information-based contagion effects of bank failures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 57-69, January.
  23. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Staub, Roberta B., 2007. "Assessing financial instability: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 188-202, June.
  24. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Serra, Thiago R. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2009. "The expectation hypothesis of interest rates and network theory: The case of Brazil," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(7), pages 1137-1149.
  25. Hawkesby, Christian & Marsh, Ian W. & Stevens, Ibrahim, 2007. "Comovements in the equity prices of large complex financial institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 391-411, March.
  26. Jung, Woo-Sung & Chae, Seungbyung & Yang, Jae-Suk & Moon, Hie-Tae, 2006. "Characteristics of the Korean stock market correlations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 361(1), pages 263-271.
  27. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291, September.
  28. Clare, Andrew D, 1995. "Using the Arbitrage Pricing Theory to Calculate the Probability of Financial Institution Failure: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 920-26, August.
  29. Bauerle, Nicole, 2002. "Risk management in credit risk portfolios with correlated assets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 187-198, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Azusa Takeyama & Nick Constantinou & Dmitri Vinogradov, 2012. "A Framework for Extracting the Probability of Default from Stock Option Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  2. Benjamin M. Tabak & Marcelo Yoshio Takami & J. M. C. Rocha & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2011. "Directed Clustering Coefficient as a Measure of Systemic Risk in Complex Banking Networks," Working Papers Series 249, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  3. Barros, Carlos Pestana & Wanke, Peter, 2014. "Banking efficiency in Brazil," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 54-65.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:232. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.