Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach
AbstractWe put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions. We compare the performance of an importance sampling algorithm with a fast analytical approximation of the ES and the marginal risk contributions. Furthermore, we show empirically for a portfolio of large international banks how our approach could be implemented to compute bank-specific capital surcharges for systemic risk or stabilisation fees. We find that size alone is not a reliable proxy for the systemic importance of a bank in this framework. In order to smooth cyclical fluctuations of the risk measure, we explore a time-varying confidence level of the ES. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies with number 2011,08.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
systemic risk contributions; systemic capital charge; expected shortfall; importance sampling; granularity adjustment;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-05-30 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2011-05-30 (Banking)
- NEP-RMG-2011-05-30 (Risk Management)
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