Non-performing loans: what matters in addition to the economic cycle?
AbstractUsing a novel panel data set we study the macroeconomic determinants of nonperforming loans (NPLs) across 75 countries during the past decade. According to our dynamic panel estimates, the following variables are found to significantly affect NPL ratios: real GDP growth, share prices, the exchange rate, and the lending interest rate. In the case of exchange rates, the direction of the effect depends on the extent of foreign exchange lending to unhedged borrowers which is particularly high in countries with pegged or managed exchange rates. In the case of share prices, the impact is found to be larger in countries which have a large stock market relative to GDP. These results are robust to alternative econometric specifications. JEL Classification: G21, G28, G32, F34
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1515.
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dimitrios P. Louzis & Aggelos T. Vouldis & Vasilios L. Metaxas, 2010.
"Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: a comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios,"
118, Bank of Greece.
- Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
- Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Matthaios D., 2008.
"Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability,"
Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,
Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-136, April.
- Athanasoglou, Panayiotis & Brissimis, Sophocles & Delis, Matthaios, 2005. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," MPRA Paper 32026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Sophocles N. Brissimis & Matthaios D. Delis, 2005. "Bank-Specific, Industry-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability," Working Papers 25, Bank of Greece.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
- Raphael A. Espinoza & Ananthakrishnan Prasad, 2010. "Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 10/224, International Monetary Fund.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2006.
"BanksÂ’ Riskiness Over the Business Cicle: a Panel Analysis on Italian Intermediaries,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
599, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Banks' riskiness over the business cycle: a panel analysis on Italian intermediaries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 119-138.
- Hamerle, Alfred & Liebig, Thilo & Scheule, Harald, 2004. "Forecasting Credit Portfolio Risk," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2004,01, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Bruna Škarica, 2013. "Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Central and Eastern European Countries," EFZG Working Papers Series 1307, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
- Bogdan Florin FILIP, 2014. "Non-performing loans – dimension of the non-quality of bank lending/loans and their specific connections," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(5(594)), pages 127-`46, May.
- Petr Jakubík & Thomas Reininger, 2013. "Determinants of Nonperforming Loans in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 48-66.
- IRC Expert Group of the ESCB, 2012. "Financial stability challenges for EU acceding and candidate countries: making financial systems more resilient in a challenging environment," Occasional Paper Series 136, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.