This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Merxe Tudela
Garry Young

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper it is shown how a Merton-model approach can be used to develop measures of the probability of failure of individual quoted UK companies. Probability estimates are then constructed for a group of failed companies and their properties as leading indicators of failure assessed. Probability estimates of failure for a control group of surviving companies are also constructed. These are used in probit regressions to evaluate the information content of the Merton-based estimates relative to information available in company accounts and in assessing Type I and Type II errors. Power curves and accuracy ratios are also examined. It is shown that there is much useful information in the Merton-style estimates.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/workingpapers/wp194.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 194.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:194

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Email:
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Publications Group).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Briys, Eric & de Varenne, Fran?ois, 1997. "Valuing Risky Fixed Rate Debt: An Extension," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(02), pages 239-248, June. [Downloadable!]
  2. McFadden, Daniel, 1974. "The measurement of urban travel demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 303-328, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Saikat Nandi, 1998. "Valuation models for default-risky securities: An overview," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 22-35. [Downloadable!]
  4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. John G. Cragg & Russell S. Uhler, 1970. "The Demand for Automobiles," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(3), pages 386-406, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mark J Manning, . "Exploring the relationship between credit spreads and default probabilities," Bank of England working papers 225, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, . "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alexandros Benos & George Papanastasopoulos, 2005. "Extending the Merton Model: A Hybrid Approach to Assessing Credit Quality," Finance 0505020, EconWPA, revised 03 Jun 2005. [Downloadable!]
  4. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Georges Dionne & Sadok Laajimi & Sofiane Mejri & Madalina Petrescu, 2006. "Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies," Working Papers 06-28, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Virolainen , Kimmo, 2004. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Authors can create their own profile with links to their works on the RePEc Author Service.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-27.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.