Monetary Policy Stance and Future Inflation: The Case of Czech Republic
AbstractThis paper examines time-varying policy neutral interest rate in real time for the Czech Republic in 2001:1-2006:09 estimating various specifications of simple Taylor-type monetary policy rules. For this reason, we apply a structural time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. The results indicate that policy neutral rate gradually decreased over sample period to the levels comparable to those of in the euro area. Next, we propose a measure of monetary policy stance based on a difference between the actual interest rate and estimated policy neutral rate and find it a useful predictor of the level as well as change of future inflation rate.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Finance and Administration in its journal ACTA VSFS.
Volume (Year): 2 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
policy neutral rate; Taylor rule; time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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