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Predicting Railroad Bankruptcies in America

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  • Edward I. Altman
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    Abstract

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the urgent need for an early-warning system covering the historically failure-prone railroad industry and to develop a tool for providing such a system. A multivariate statistical technique called linear discriminant analysis is utilized to identify and quantify those financial measures which are effective indicators of bankruptcies. A model which combined several financial statement ratios proved to be extremely accurate in predicting railroad bankruptcies at one and two annual financial statement dates prior to failure. Subsequent tests on additional railroad samples confirm the validity of the model. Finally, currently existing railroads in America are assessed for their bankruptcy potential by this diagnostic model.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by The RAND Corporation in its journal Bell Journal of Economics.

    Volume (Year): 4 (1973)
    Issue (Month): 1 (Spring)
    Pages: 184-211

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    Handle: RePEc:rje:bellje:v:4:y:1973:i:spring:p:184-211

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    Cited by:
    1. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Firm Default And Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 945-972, 08.
    2. Luigi Zingales, . "Survival of the Fittest or the Fattest? Exit and Financing in the Trucking Industry," CRSP working papers 336, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    3. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
    4. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
    5. Carling, Kenneth & Rönnegård, Lars & Roszbach, Kasper, 2004. "Is Firm Interdependence within Industries Important for Portfolio Credit Risk?," Working Paper Series 168, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

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