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The channel of monetary transmission to demand: evidence from the market for automobile credit

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Sydney Ludvigson

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Abstract

In response to tight money, both consumer loans and consumption fall. In this paper, I ask whether there is any causality running from loans to consumption by focusing on hw the composition of automobile finance between bank and nonbank sources of credit changes in response to unanticipated innovations in monetary policy. The results indicate that contractionary monetary policy reduces the supply of bank consumer loans, which in turn produces a decline in real consumption. The evidence is therefore supportive of a credit channel theory of monetary transmission to aggregate consumption. Furthermore, the nature of automobile finance is uniquely suited to identifying which of two possible sub-channels is relatively more important, and suggests the results are more likely consistent with a bank lending channel than with a pure balance sheet channel.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9625.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9625

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Keywords: Automobile industry and trade - Finance Consumer credit

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  1. Ryan R. Brady, 2006. "Credit Cards and Monetary Policy: Are Households still Liquidity-Constrained?," Departmental Working Papers 12, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2002. "The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Housing Market," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 541, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 29 Aug 2003. [Downloadable!]
  3. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2003. "Money in a Theory of Banking," NBER Working Papers 10070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ryan R. Brady, 2007. "Consumer Credit, Liquidity and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 20, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. David Gross & Nicholas Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Response to Changes in Credit Supply: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-10, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Anil K. Kashyap & Raghuram Rajan & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "Banks as Liquidity Providers: An Explanation for the Co-Existence of Lending and Deposit-Taking," NBER Working Papers 6962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1997. "The role of banks in monetary policy: a survey with implications for the European Monetary Union," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep, pages 2-18. [Downloadable!]
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