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Correlation in corporate defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?

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  • Lando, David
  • Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

Abstract

We revisit a method used by Das et al. (2007) (DDKS) who jointly test and reject a specification of firm default intensities and the doubly stochastic assumption in intensity models of default. The method relies on a time change result for counting processes. With an almost identical set of default histories recorded by Moody's in the period from 1982 to 2006, but using a different specification of the default intensity, we cannot reject the tests based on time change used in DDKS. We then note that the method proposed by DDKS is mainly a misspecification test in that it has very limited power in detecting violations of the doubly stochastic assumption. For example, it will not detect contagion which spreads through the explanatory variables "covariates" that determine the default intensities of individual firms. Therefore, we perform a different test using a Hawkes process alternative to see if firm-specific variables are affected by occurrences of defaults, but find no evidence of default contagion.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Intermediation.

Volume (Year): 19 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 355-372

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinin:v:19:y:2010:i:3:p:355-372

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622875

Related research

Keywords: Default correlation Intensity estimation Hawkes process;

References

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  1. Darrell DUFFIE & Andreas ECKNER & Guillaume HOREL & Leandro SAITA, . "Frailty Correlated Default," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-44, Swiss Finance Institute.
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  3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
  4. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2005. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26.
  5. Philippe Jorion & Gaiyan Zhang, 2009. "Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2053-2087, October.
  6. Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
  7. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
  8. André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
  9. Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated," NBER Working Papers 11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. M. Davis & V. Lo, 2001. "Infectious defaults," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 382-387.
  11. Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  12. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
  13. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
  14. Frederic Schoenberg, 2002. "On Rescaled Poisson Processes and the Brownian Bridge," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 445-457, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2013. "Transatlantic systemic risk," CFR Working Papers 12-10 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  2. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2011. "Firm default and aggregate fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 1029, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2012. "Modeling credit contagion via the updating of fragile beliefs," Working Paper Series WP-2012-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2010. "Default, Liquidity and Crises : An Econometric Framework," Working Papers 2010-46, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  5. Yadong Li & Ariye Shater, 2010. "Valuation Bound of Tranche Options," Papers 1004.1759, arXiv.org.
  6. Serge Darolles & Patrick Gagliardini & Christian Gouriéroux, 2012. "Survival of Hedge Funds : Frailty vs Contagion," Working Papers 2012-36, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  7. Jennie Bai & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2012. "On bounding credit event risk premia," Staff Reports 577, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Myrian Beatriz Eiras das Neves, 2013. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: an investigation of this relationship in the Brazilian corporate credit market," Working Papers Series 304, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Istvan Barra & Lennart Hoogerheide & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2012. "Joint Independent Metropolis-Hastings Methods for Nonlinear Non-Gaussian State Space Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-050/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2013. "Transatlantic systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4241-4255.
  11. Trapp, Monika & Wewel, Claudio, 2012. "Transatlantic systemic risk," CFR Working Papers 12-10, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  12. Xiao, Tim, 2013. "The Impact of Default Dependency and Collateralization on Asset Pricing and Credit Risk Modeling," MPRA Paper 47136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. James Wolter, 2013. "Separating the impact of macroeconomic variables and global frailty in event data," Economics Series Working Papers 667, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  14. Charitou, Andreas & Dionysiou, Dionysia & Lambertides, Neophytos & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2013. "Alternative bankruptcy prediction models using option-pricing theory," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2329-2341.

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