Modeling the effect of macroeconomic factors on corporate default and credit rating transitions
AbstractWe explore how general economic conditions impact defaults and major credit rating changes by fitting reduced-form Cox intensity models with a broad range of macroeconomic and firm-specific ratings-related variables. For all corporate issuers in the period 1981–2002 we find both types of factors strongly influenced the risk of a credit event. However, while the effects of ratings-related factors were consistent with expectations and very robust under different specifications, significance levels and even signs for the macro variable coefficients depended heavily on which other variables were included. This sheds light on the disparate results reported in earlier studies.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.
Volume (Year): 21 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165
Credit risk; Cox model; Default risk; Intensity model; Bond ratings;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
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- Louis, Philippe & Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2013. "Understanding and predicting bank rating transitions using optimal survival analysis models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 280-283.
- Orth, Walter, 2013. "Multi-period credit default prediction with time-varying covariates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 214-222.
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