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Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity

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  • Fuertes, Ana-Maria
  • Kalotychou, Elena

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 51 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 1420-1441

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:51:y:2006:i:2:p:1420-1441

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  1. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  2. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2007. "On sovereign credit migration: A study of alternative estimators and rating dynamics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3448-3469, April.
  3. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1987. "The external debt repayments problems of LDC's : An econometric model based on panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 205-230.
  4. Amadou N. R. Sy & Andrea Pescatori, 2004. "Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/44, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Kodde, David A & Palm, Franz C, 1986. "Wald Criteria for Jointly Testing Equality and Inequality Restriction s," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1243-48, September.
  7. Abhyankar, Abhay & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on the Economic Value of Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 4365, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521634809.
  10. Oral, Muhittin & Kettani, Ossama & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Daouas, Mohamed, 1992. "An estimation model for country risk rating," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 583-593, December.
  11. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  12. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Smith, Ron, 2006. "Unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2361-2380, May.
  13. Somerville, R. A. & Taffler, R. J., 1995. "Banker judgement versus formal forecasting models: The case of country risk assessment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-297, May.
  14. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  15. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
  17. Bo E. Honoré & Ekaterini Kyriazidou, 2000. "Panel Data Discrete Choice Models with Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 839-874, July.
  18. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian Lundblad, 2004. "Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?," Working Paper Research 53, National Bank of Belgium.
  19. Lee, Suk Hun, 1991. "Ability and willingness to service debt as explanation for commercial and official rescheduling cases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-27, February.
  20. Marcel Peter, 2002. "Estimating Default Probabilities of Emerging Market Sovereigns: A New Look at a Not-So-New Literature," IHEID Working Papers 06-2002, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  21. Sotiris Staikouras, 2004. "A chronicle of the banking and currency crises," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 873-878.
  22. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
  23. Enrica Detragiache & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001. "Crises and Liquidity - Evidence and Interpretation," IMF Working Papers 01/2, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Donkers, A.C.D. & Melenberg, B., 2002. "Testing predictive performance of binary choice models," Econometric Institute Report EI 2002-01, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
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Cited by:
  1. Francesco Bartolucci & Valentina Nigro, 2007. "Maximum likelihood estimation of an extended latent markov model for clustered binary panel data," CEIS Research Paper 96, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  2. Fantazzini, Dean, 2008. "Credit Risk Management," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 12(4), pages 84-137.
  3. Thangjam Rajeshwar Singh, 2011. "An ordered probit model of an early warning system for predicting financial crisis in India," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 185-201 Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Roberto Savona & Marika Vezzoli, 2012. "Fitting and Forecasting Sovereign Defaults Using Multiple Risk Signals," Working Papers 2012_26, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

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