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Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models

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Author Info
Lopez, Jose A

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Abstract

Standard statistical loss functions, such as mean-squared error, are commonly used for evaluating financial volatility forecasts. In this paper, an alternative evaluation framework, based on probability scoring rules that can be more closely tailored to a forecast user's decision problem, is proposed. According to the decision at hand, the user specifies the economic events to be forecast, the scoring rule with which to evaluate these probability forecasts, and the subsets of the forecasts of particular interest. The volatility forecasts from a model are then transformed into probability forecasts of the relevant events and evaluated using the selected scoring rule and calibration tests. An empirical example using exchange rate data illustrates the framework and confirms that the choice of loss function directly affects the forecast evaluation results. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 20 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 87-109
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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:2:p:87-109

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. repec:att:wimass:199317r is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Ray C. Fair, 1993. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 157-178 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  4. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-53, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993. "A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-45, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Lee, Keun Yeong, 1991. "Are the GARCH models best in out-of-sample performance?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 305-308, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. repec:att:wimass:199417 is not listed on IDEAS
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  25. Diebold & Lopez, . "Modeling Volatility Dynamics," Home Pages _062, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Jaesun Noh & Robert F. Engle & Alex Kane, 1994. "Forecasting Volatility and Option Prices of the S&P 500 Index," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 93-32r, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jose A. Lopez & Christian A. Walter, 2000. "Evaluating covariance matrix forecasts in a value-at-risk framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  2. BAUWENS, Luc & SUCARRAT, Genaro, 2006. "General to specific modelling of exchange rate volatility: a forecast evaluation," CORE Discussion Papers 2006021, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1996. "Forecast Evaluation and Combination," NBER Technical Working Papers 0192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Odeh, Oluwarotimi O. & Featherstone, Allen M. & Sanjoy, Das, 2006. "Predicting Credit Default in an Agricultural Bank: Methods and Issues," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35359, Southern Agricultural Economics Association. [Downloadable!]
  5. Leonardo Souza & Alvaro Veiga & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2002. "Evaluating the performance of GARCH models using White´s Reality Check," Textos para discussão 453, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  6. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrics 0308001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Antonio Rubia & Trino-Manuel Ñíguez, 2003. "Forecasting The Conditional Covariance Matrix Of A Portfolio Under Long-Run Temporal Dependence," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-34, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Georgios Chortareas & John Nankervis & Ying Jiang, 2007. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility with High Frequency Data: Is the Euro Different?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 79, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  9. Gianni Amisano & Raffaella Giacomini, 2005. "Comparing Density Forecsts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Working Papers ubs0504, University of Brescia, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Andrew J. Patton & Kevin Sheppard, 2008. "Evaluating Volatility and Correlation Forecasts," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe22, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Measuring Volatility Dynamics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Raffaella Giacomini, 2002. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests: Asymptotic and Bootstrap Methods," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 583, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Jose A. Lopez, 1997. "Regulatory evaluation of value-at-risk models," Staff Reports 33, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Gloria González-Rivera & Tae-Hwy Lee, 2007. "Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting," Working Papers 200803, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2008. [Downloadable!]
  15. Raffaella Giacomini, 2002. "Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests: Asymptotic and Bootstrap Methods," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2002-12, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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