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The ACD Model: Predictability of the Time Between Concecutive Trades

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Author Info
Alfonso Dufour () (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)
Robert F Engle (Department of Economics - University of California)

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Abstract

Forecasting ability of several parameterizations of ACD models are compared to benchmark linear autoregressions for inter-trade durations. The estimation of parametric ACD models requires both the choice of a conditional density for durations and the specification of a functional form for the conditional mean duration. Our results provide guidance for choosing among different parameterizations and for developing better forecasting models to predict one-step-ahead, multi-step-ahead, and the whole density of time durations. For evaluating density forecasts, we propose a new constructive test, which is based on the series of probability integral transforms. The choice of the conditional distribution for inter-trade durations does not seem to affect the out-of sample performances of the ACD at short, as well as longer, horizons. Yet, this choice becomes critical when forecasting the density.

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Paper provided by Henley Business School, Reading University in its series ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance with number icma-dp2000-05.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: May 2000
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Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2000-05

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  1. repec:bep:sndecm:11:2007:2:1377-1377 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Fernandes, Marcelo & Grammig, Joachim, 2002. "A Family of Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 440, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Frank Gerhard & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2006. "A Dynamic Semiparametric Proportional Hazard Model," FRU Working Papers 2006/05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
  4. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2000. "A Model for the Federal Funds Rate Target," NBER Working Papers 7847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Wing Lon NG, 2004. "Duration and Order Type Clusters," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 730, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luc, BAUWENS & Nikolaus, HAUTSCH, 2006. "Modelling Financial High Frequency Data Using Point Processes," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006039, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Nikolaus Hautsch, 2002. "Modelling Intraday Trading Activity Using Box-Cox-ACD Models," CoFE Discussion Paper 02-05, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  8. Nikolaus Hautsch & Winfried Pohlmeier, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Financial Transaction Data: Pitfalls and Opportunities," CoFE Discussion Paper 01-05, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
  9. Nikolaus Hautsch, 2006. "Testing the Conditional Mean Function of Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," FRU Working Papers 2006/06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
  10. Anthony D. Hall & Nikolaus Hautsch, 2004. "Order Aggressiveness and Order Book Dynamics," FRU Working Papers 2005/04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Wing Lon NG, 2004. "Duration and Order Type Clusters," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 272, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. Meitz, Mika & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2004. "Evaluating models of autoregressive conditional duration," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 557, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 13 Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Yongmiao Hong & Yoon-Jin Lee, 2007. "Detecting Misspecifications in Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models," Caepr Working Papers 2007-019, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  14. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Dynamic modeling under linear-exponential loss," Working Papers w0092, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
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