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A family of autoregressive conditional duration models

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  • Fernandes, Marcelo
  • Grammig, Joachim

Abstract

This paper develops a family of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models that encompasses most specifications in the literature. The nesting relies on a Box-Cox transformation with shape parameter [delta] to the conditional duration process anda possibly asymmetric shocks impact curve. We establish conditions for the existence of higher-order moments, strict stationarity, geometric ergodicity and [beta]-mixing property with exponential decay. We next derive moment recursion relations and the autocovariance function of the power [delta] of the duration process. Finally, we assess the practical usefulness of our family of ACD models using NYSE price duration data on the IBM stock. While the in-sample results warrant the extra flexibility provided either by the Box-Cox transformation or by the asymmetric response to shocks, we find no specification that entails satisfactory out-of-sample performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 130 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-23

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:130:y:2006:i:1:p:1-23

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. He, Changli & Ter svirta, Timo & Malmsten, Hans, 2002. "Moment Structure Of A Family Of First-Order Exponential Garch Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(04), pages 868-885, August.
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  7. Luc Bauwens & David Veredas, 2004. "The stochastic conditional duration model: a latent factor model for the analysis of financial durations," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136234, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  8. BAUWENS, Luc & VEREDAS, David, . "The stochastic conditional duration model: a latent variable model for the analysis of financial durations," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1688, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  9. Marcelo Fernandes & Joachim Grammig, 2000. "Non-Parametric Specification Tests For Conditional Duration Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 40, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Hentschel, Ludger, 1995. "All in the family Nesting symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 71-104, September.
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  12. Bauwens, Luc & Giot, Pierre & Grammig, Joachim & Veredas, David, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 589-609.
  13. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
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  16. Ghysels, Eric & Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joann, 2004. "Stochastic volatility duration models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 413-433, April.
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