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Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process

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  • Engle, Robert F
  • Lunde, Asger

Abstract

Recent empirical work has studied point processes of transactions in financial markets and observed clear time dependent patterns in these arrival times. However these studies do not examine the timing of quoted price changes. This paper formulates a bivariate point process to jointly analyze transaction and quote arrivals. In microstructure models, transactions may reveal private information which is then incorporated into new prices. This paper examines the speed of this information flow and the circumstances which govern it. One of the main conclusions are that conditional on past quote times, the impact of trade information is to make quote durations longer when there is more information flow rather than less. This is interpreted as evidence that limit order suppliers become more cautious in the presence of apparent informational trading.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC San Diego in its series University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt8bh079sq.

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Date of creation: 01 Mar 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt8bh079sq

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Keywords: international trade; bivariate point process;

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  1. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December.
  2. Robert F. Engle, 2000. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 1-22, January.
  3. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  4. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
  5. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
  6. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  7. Robert F. Engle & Joe Lange, 1997. "Measuring, Forecasting and Explaining Time Varying Liquidity in the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 6129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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