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Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades

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Author Info

  • David Easley

    (Cornell University)

  • Robert F. Engle

    (New York University)

  • Maureen O'Hara

    (Cornell University)

  • Liuren Wu

    (Fordham University)

Abstract

In this paper we extend the model of Easley and O'Hara (1992) to allow the arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades to be time-varying and forecastable. We specify a generalized autoregressive bivariate process for the arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades and estimate the model on 16 actively traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange over 15 years of transaction data. Our results show that uninformed trades are highly persistent. Uninformed order arrivals clump together, with high uninformed volume days likely to follow high uninformed volume days, and conversely. This behavior is consistent with the passive characterization of the uninformed found in the literature. But we do find an important difference in how the uninformed behave; they avoid trading when the informed are forecasted to be present. Informed trades also exhibit complex patterns, but these patterns are not consistent with the strategic behavior posited in the literature. The informed do not appear to hide in order flow, but instead they trade persistently. We also investigate the correlation between the arrival rates of trades and trade composition on market volatility, liquidity and depth. We find that although volatility increases with the forecasted arrival rates of total trades, it is relatively independent of the forecasted composition of the trade. We use the opening bid-ask spread as a measure of market liquidity. We find that as the number of trades increases over time, the relative proportion of informed trades decreases and hence, spreads become narrower and the market becomes more liquid. Finally, we compute the price impact curve of consecutive buy orders and report the half life of the price impact as a measure of market depth. We find a positive correlation between the half life and total trades indicating that the market is deeper in presence of more trades.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0207017.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 30 Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0207017

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on LaTex; to print on postscript; pages: 38 ; figures: included. prepared via dvipdfm
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Arrival rates; informed trades; uninformed trades; autoregressive process; market depth; liquidity; volatility.;

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References

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  1. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  2. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  3. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  4. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  5. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
  6. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  7. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Anshuman, V. Ravi, 2001. "Trading activity and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 3-32, January.
  8. Dufour, Alfonso & Engle, Robert F, 1999. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt62c0h04j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  9. Kerry Back & C. Henry Cao & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2117-2155, October.
  10. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
  11. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "One Day in the Life of a Very Common Stock," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 805-35.
  12. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  13. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1996. " Cream-Skimming or Profit-Sharing? The Curious Role of Purchased Order Flow," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 811-33, July.
  14. Engle, Robert F. & Lange, Joe, 2001. "Predicting VNET: A model of the dynamics of market depth," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 113-142, April.
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