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Time-Varying Arrival Rates of Informed and Uninformed Trades

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Author Info

  • David Easley
  • Robert F. Engle
  • Maureen O'Hara
  • Liuren Wu

Abstract

We propose a dynamic econometric microstructure model of trading, and we investigate how the dynamics of trades and trade composition interact with the evolution of market liquidity, market depth, and order flow. We estimate a bivariate generalized autoregressive intensity process for the arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades for 16 actively traded stocks over 15 years of transaction data. Our results show that both informed and uninformed trades are highly persistent, but that the uninformed arrival forecasts respond negatively to past forecasts of the informed intensity. Our estimation generates daily conditional arrival rates of informed and uninformed trades, which we use to construct forecasts of the probability of information-based trade (PIN). These forecasts are used in turn to forecast market liquidity as measured by bid-ask spreads and the price impact of orders. We observe that PINs vary across assets and over time, and most importantly that they are correlated across assets. Our analysis shows that one principal component explains much of the daily variation in PINs and that this systemic liquidity factor may be important for asset pricing. We also find that PINs tend to rise before earnings announcement days and decline afterwards. Copyright The Author 2008., Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Econometrics in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (Spring)
Pages: 171-207

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Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:6:y:2008:i:2:p:171-207

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References

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  1. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  2. Engle, Robert F. & Lange, Joe, 2001. "Predicting VNET: A model of the dynamics of market depth," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 113-142, April.
  3. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
  4. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
  5. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Anshuman, V. Ravi, 2001. "Trading activity and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 3-32, January.
  6. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1996. " Cream-Skimming or Profit-Sharing? The Curious Role of Purchased Order Flow," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 811-33, July.
  7. Dufour, Alfonso & Engle, Robert F, 1999. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt62c0h04j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  8. Kerry Back & C. Henry Cao & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2117-2155, October.
  9. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  10. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
  11. Easley, David & Kiefer, Nicholas M & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "One Day in the Life of a Very Common Stock," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 805-35.
  12. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  13. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
  14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bardong, Florian & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2005. "Informed Trading, Information Asymmetry and Pricing of Information Risk: Empirical Evidence from the NYSE," MPRA Paper 13586, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2008.
  2. Dimitrios Karyampas & Paola Paiardini, 2011. "Probability of Informed Trading and Volatility for an ETF," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1101, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  3. Dirk Schiereck & Christian Voigt, 2010. "With or without you: market quality of floor trading when screen trading closes early," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 179-197, February.
  4. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2012. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 539-580.
  5. Xavier Vives & Giovanni Cespa, 2011. "Higher Order Expectations, Illiquidity, and Short Term Trading," 2011 Meeting Papers 929, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Chi, Wuchun & Wang, Chenchin, 2010. "Accounting conservatism in a setting of Information Asymmetry between majority and minority shareholders," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 465-489, December.
  7. Juan Jose Cruces & Enrique L. Kawamura, 2005. "Insider Trading and Corporate Governance in Latin America: A Sequential Trade Model Approach," Working Papers 86, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Dec 2005.
  8. Albuquerque, Rui & de Francisco, Eva & Marques, Luis, 2006. "Marketwide Private Information in Stocks: Forecasting Currency Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 5604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2011. "Expectations, Liquidity, and Short-term Trading," CESifo Working Paper Series 3390, CESifo Group Munich.
  10. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2007. "Market sidedness: insights into motives for trade initiation," Staff Reports 292, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Hollifield, Burton & Miller, Robert A. & Sandås, Patrik & Slive, Joshua, 2002. "Liquidity Supply and Demand in Limit Order Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Renault, Eric & Werker, Bas J.M., 2011. "Causality effects in return volatility measures with random times," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 272-279, January.
  13. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2006. "Two-sided markets and intertemporal trade clustering: insights into trading motives," Staff Reports 246, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Â Leif Brandes & Â Egon Franck & Â Erwin Verbeek, . "Â The Validity of Models on the Information Content of Trades," Working Papers 00120, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2010.
  15. Diego Alonso Agudelo Rueda & Edwin Villarraga & Santiago Giraldo, 2012. "Asimetría en la información y su efecto en los rendimientos en los mercados accionarios latinoamericanos," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010669, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
  16. Craig Furfine, 2003. "When is inter-transaction time informative?," Working Paper Series WP-03-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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