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Trades and Quotes: A Bivariate Point Process

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Author Info
Robert F. Engle
Asger Lunde

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Abstract

This article formulates a bivariate point process to jointly analyze trade and quote arrivals. In microstructure models, trades may reveal private information that is then incorporated into new price quotes. This article examines the speed of this information flow and the circumstances that govern it. A joint likelihood function for trade and quote arrivals is specified in a way that recognizes that an intervening trade sometimes censors the time between a trade and the subsequent quote. Models of trades and quotes are estimated for eight stocks using Trade and Quote database (TAQ) data. The essential finding for the arrival of price quotes is that information flow variables, such as high trade arrival rates, large volume per trade, and wide bid--ask spreads, all predict more rapid price revisions. This means prices respond more quickly to trades when information is flowing so that the price impacts of trades and ultimately the volatility of prices are high in such circumstances. , .

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal Journal of Financial Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 1 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 159-188
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Handle: RePEc:oup:jfinec:v:1:y:2003:i:2:p:159-188

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Alfonso Dufour & Robert Engle, 1999. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 1999-15, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  5. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Robert F. Engle, 1996. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 5816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Joel Hasbrouck, 1999. "Trading Fast and Slow: Security Market Events in Real Time," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-012, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-. [Downloadable!]
  2. Spierdijk, L., 2002. "An empirical analysis of the role of the trading intensity in information dissemination on the NYSE," Discussion Paper 30, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stanislav Anatolyev & Dmitry Shakin, 2006. "Trade intensity in the Russian stock market:dynamics, distribution and determinants," Working Papers w0070, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Clive G. Bowsher, 2005. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2005-W26, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Francis X. Diebold, 2004. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for Robert F. Engle," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Spierdijk, L. & Nijman, T.E. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 2002. "Modeling comovements in trading intensities to distinguish sector and stock specific news," Discussion Paper 69, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  7. Chiara Scotti, 2006. "A bivariate model of Fed and ECB main policy rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 875, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  8. Wei Sun & Svetlozar Rachev & Frank Fabozzi & Petko Kalev, 2008. "Fractals in trade duration: capturing long-range dependence and heavy tailedness in modeling trade duration," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 217-241, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Luc, BAUWENS & Nikolaus, HAUTSCH, 2006. "Modelling Financial High Frequency Data Using Point Processes," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006039, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Anthony Tay & Christopher Ting & Yiu Kuen Tse & Mitch Warachka, 2004. "Transaction-Data Analysis of Marked Durations and Their Implications for Market Microstructure," Working Papers 09-2004, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. GRAMMIG, Joachim & HEINEN, AndrŽas & RENGIFO, Erick, 2004. "Trading activity and liquidity supply in a pure limit order book market," CORE Discussion Papers 2004058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  12. Wing Lon NG, 2004. "Duration and Order Type Clusters," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 730, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ola Simonsen, 2007. "An empirical model for durations in stocks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 241-255, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Nikolaus Hautsch, 1999. "Analyzing the Time between Trades with a Gamma Compounded Hazard Model. An Application to LIFFE Bund Future Transactions," Finance 9904002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. GIOT, Pierre & ,, 1999. "Time transformations, intraday data and volatility models ," CORE Discussion Papers 1999044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  16. BAUWENS, Luc & HAUTSCH, Nikolaus, 2003. "Dynamic latent factor models for intensity processes," CORE Discussion Papers 2003103, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  17. Clive G. Bowsher, 2003. "Modelling Security Market Events in Continuous Time: Intensity Based, Multivariate Point Process Models," Economics Papers 2003-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  18. Erick Rengifo & Andresas Heinen, 2004. "Comovements in Trading activity: A Multivariate Autoregressive Model of Time Series Count Data Using Copulas," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 755, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  19. Spierdijk, L. & Nijman, T.E. & Soest, A.H.O., 2002. "The price impact of trades in illiquid stocks in periods of high and low market activity," Discussion Paper 29, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  20. Wing Lon NG, 2004. "Duration and Order Type Clusters," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 272, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  21. Simonsen, Ola, 2005. "An Empirical Model for Durations in Stocks," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 657, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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