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Testing predictive performance of binary choice models

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Author Info

  • Donkers, B.
  • Melenberg, B.

Abstract

Binary choice models occur frequently in economic modeling. A measure of the predictive performance of binary choice models that is often reported is the hit rate of a model. This paper develops a test for the outperformance of a predictor for binary outcomes over a naive prediction method, which predicts the outcome that is most often observed. This is done for a general class of prediction models, including the well known Probit and Logit models. In many cases the test is easy to compute. The test is then applied and compared to a general test of Pesaran and Timmermann (1992) for dependence between predictors and realizations.

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File URL: http://repub.eur.nl/pub/586/feweco20020207092234.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute in its series Econometric Institute Research Papers with number EI 2002-01.

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Date of creation: 07 Feb 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ems:eureir:586

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Phone: 31 10 4081111
Web page: http://www.eur.nl/ese
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Related research

Keywords: Binary choice; Marketing; Predictive performance; Testing;

References

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  1. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
  2. Pakes, Ariel & Pollard, David, 1989. "Simulation and the Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1027-57, September.
  3. Mc Cracken, Michael W., 2000. "Robust out-of-sample inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 195-223, December.
  4. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-33, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rulleau, Bénédicte & Dachary-Bernard, Jeanne, 2012. "Preferences, rational choices and economic valuation: Some empirical tests," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 198-206.
  2. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2006. "Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1420-1441, November.
  3. Bénédicte Rulleau & Jeoffrey Dehez & Patrick Point, 2011. "The tourist recreational demand for coastal forests: Do forests really matter?," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 92(3), pages 291-310.

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