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Split sovereign ratings and rating migrations in emerging economies

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  • Al-Sakka, Rasha
  • ap Gwilym, Owain

Abstract

This paper presents evidence on sovereign rating heterogeneity in emerging economies. Split rated sovereigns are prone to be upgraded (downgraded) by the agency from whom a lower (higher) rating exists. The harsher the split ratings between two agencies, the greater the effect on probabilities of future rating changes. Split ratings among Moody's, S&P and Fitch are influential on their rating migrations. The rating dynamics of Capital Intelligence, Japan Credit Rating Agency and Japan Rating & Investment Information are affected by their rating disagreements with the larger agencies. Only Moody's upgrade decisions are influenced by rating differentials with the smaller agencies.

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  • Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Split sovereign ratings and rating migrations in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 79-97, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:11:y:2010:i:2:p:79-97
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    Cited by:

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    3. Salvador, Carlos & Pastor, Jose Manuel & Fernández de Guevara, Juan, 2014. "Impact of the subprime crisis on bank ratings: The effect of the hardening of rating policies and worsening of solvency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 13-31.
    4. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2010. "Sovereign Ratings and Migrations: Emerging Markets," Working Papers 10009, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael Hutchison, 2013. "Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 582-609, AUTUMN.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas, 2015. "Newswire messages and sovereign credit ratings: Evidence from European countries under austerity reform programmes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 54-62.
    7. Huang, Yu-Li & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2021. "From revenue to safety: Rating agencies have changed their concerns after the crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Zhao, Sheng & Moreira, Fernando & Wang, Tong, 2021. "Is solicitation status related to rating conservatism and rating quality?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    9. Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Robert Brooks & Samantha Hum & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2011. "Sovereign rating changes and realized volatility in Asian foreign exchange markets during the Asian crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 997-1003.
    10. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2010. "The Extent and Causes of Sovereign Split Ratings," Working Papers 10008, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    11. Brana, Sophie & Lahet, Delphine, 2010. "Determinants of capital inflows into Asia: The relevance of contagion effects as push factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 273-284, September.
    12. Mahir Binici & Michael M Hutchison & Evan Weicheng Miao, 2018. "Are credit rating agencies discredited? Measuring market price effects from agency sovereign debt announcements," BIS Working Papers 704, Bank for International Settlements.

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