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Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries

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Author Info
Silvia Ardagna
Francesco Caselli
Timothy Lane

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Abstract

We use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest rates by about 10 basis points. In a vector autoregression (VAR), the same shock leads to a cumulative increase of almost 150 basis points after 10 years. The effect of debt on interest rates is non-linear: only for countries with above-average levels of debt does an increase in debt affect the interest rate. World fiscal policy is also important: an increase in total OECD-government borrowing increases each country's interest rates. However, domestic fiscal policy continues to affect domestic interest rates even after controlling for worldwide debts and deficits.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10788.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10788

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H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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References listed on IDEAS
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Silvia Ardagna, 2004. "Financial markets’ behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," Working Paper Series 390, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Hauner & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates--How Sustainable Is the "New Economy"?," IMF Working Papers 06/112, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2007. "Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?," Working Papers 2007-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. AKA, Bédia F, 2007. "Relative Effects Of Public And Private Investment On Cote D’Ivoire’S Economic Performance," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "The final blow to the Stability Pact? EMU enlargement and government debt," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Euro bonds: in search of financial spillovers," Department of Economics Working Papers 0502, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  8. Günter Coenen & Matthias Mohr & Roland Straub, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area - long-run benefits and short-run costs," Working Paper Series 902, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Favero, Carlo A & Giglio, Stefano W, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and the Term Structure: Evidence from the Case of Italy in the EMS and the EMU Periods," CEPR Discussion Papers 5793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Ludger Linnemann & Andreas Schabert, . "Debt Non-Neutrality, Policy Interactions, and Macroeconomic Stability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-077/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Jeff Huther, 1999. "An Integrated Approach to Government Financial Policy," Treasury Working Paper Series 99/08, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Ludger Schuknecht, 2006. "Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market," Discussion Papers 151, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
  13. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 176(1), pages 9-41, April. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Carsten Detken & Vítor Gaspar & Bernhard Winkler, 2004. "On prosperity and posterity: the need for fiscal discipline in a monetary union," Working Paper Series 420, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Srobona Mitra, 2007. "Is the Quantity of Government Debt a Constraint for Monetary Policy?," IMF Working Papers 07/62, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "Brüssel, Frankfurt oder Basel - Wo muss das Problem steigender Staatsschulden in der Europäischen Währungsunion gelöst werden?," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland. [Downloadable!]
  17. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline as a Social Norm: The European Stability Pact," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2007-22, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  18. Hanno Lustig, 2005. "Fiscal Hedging and the Yield Curve(joint with Chris Sleet, CMU, and Sevin Yeltekin (CMU))," UCLA Economics Online Papers 353, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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