Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ardagna, Silvia
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Using a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2002, this paper shows that interest rates, particularly those of long-term government bonds, decrease when countries' fiscal position improves and increase around periods of budget deteriorations. Stock market prices surge around times of substantial fiscal tightening and plunge in periods of very loose fiscal policy. In addition, the paper shows that results depend on countries' initial fiscal conditions and on the type of fiscal consolidations: Fiscal adjustments that occur in country-years with high levels of government deficit, that are implemented by cutting government spending, and that generate a permanent and substantial decrease in government debt are associated with larger reductions in interest rates and increases in stock market prices.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V64-4T5JJ0D-1/2/ee123e9091ffe7d8efceb8e3feabd66a
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Economic Review.

    Volume (Year): 53 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 (January)
    Pages: 37-55

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:53:y:2009:i:1:p:37-55

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eer

    Related research

    Keywords: Fiscal stabilizations Fiscal expansions Interest rates Stock market prices;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 273-334.
    2. Mountford, Andrew & Uhlig, Harald, 2002. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 1999. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 7207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Philip R. Lane & G.M. Milesi-Ferretti, 2003. "International Financial Integration," Trinity Economics Papers 20031, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    8. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "Yield-curve movements and fiscal retrenchments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1675-1685, December.
    9. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
    10. Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 0369, European Central Bank.
    11. Thomas Laubach, 2003. "New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal stabilizations: When do they work and why," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 1047-1074, October.
    13. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Wescott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 725-753, December.
    14. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 1999. "Financial intermediation and growth : Causality and causes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2059, The World Bank.
    15. Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2005. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0670, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    16. Peter Blair Henry, 2000. "Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 529-564, 04.
    17. Tavares, Jose & Valkanov, Rossen, 2001. "The neglected effect of fiscal policy on stock and bond returns," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp413, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
    18. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    19. von Hagen, Jurgen & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Strauch, Rolf, 2002. "Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 512-535, December.
    20. Peter Blair Henry, 2001. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," NBER Working Papers 8289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for non-linear effects of fiscal policy: Evidence from industrial and developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1289, June.
    22. Anusha Chari & Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Risk Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence From a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 8988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Williams, Geoffrey, 2002. "Long-term nominal interest rates and domestic fundamentals," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 119-130.
    24. von Hagen, Jurgen & Strauch, Rolf R, 2001. " Fiscal Consolidations: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Success," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 327-46, December.
    25. Plosser, Charles I., 1987. "Fiscal policy and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 343-367, September.
    26. Adrian Orr & Malcolm Edey & Michael Kennedy, 1995. "The Determinants of Real Long-Term Interest Rates: 17 Country Pooled-Time-Series Evidence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 155, OECD Publishing.
    27. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0411, European Central Bank.
    28. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    29. Miller, Stephen M. & Russek, Frank S., 1996. "Do federal deficits affect interest rates? Evidence from three econometric methods," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 403-428.
    30. Vincent Reinhart & Brian Sack, 2000. "The Economic Consequences of Disappearing Government Debt," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(2), pages 163-220.
    31. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2002. "Should the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve be concerned about fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 333-389.
    32. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
    33. Roberto Perotti, 2002. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Economics Working Papers 015, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    34. repec:fth:coluec:754 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," Working Paper Series 0390, European Central Bank.
    36. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates? : Evidence from six countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-300, September.
    37. Ardagna, Silvia & Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," Scholarly Articles 3353756, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    38. Paesani, Paolo & Strauch, Rolf & Kremer, Manfred, 2006. "Public debt and long-term interest rates: the case of Germany, Italy and the USA," Working Paper Series 0656, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Luca Agnello & Vitor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "How Does Fiscal Policy React to Wealth Composition and Asset Prices?," GEMF Working Papers 2011-18, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
    2. Agnello, L. & Furceri, D. & R.M, Sousa., 2011. "Fiscal Policy Discretion, Private Spending, and Crisis Episodes," Working papers 354, Banque de France.
    3. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Can Fiscal Policy Stimulus Boost Economic Recovery?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1045-1066.
    4. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Alaa M. Soliman, 2014. "Aspects of Macroeconomic Policy Combinations and Their Effects on Financial Markets," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(1), pages 95-118, March.
    5. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2014. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 255-270.
    6. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2010. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Working Paper Series 1276, European Central Bank.
    7. Salvatore Dell’Erba, Sergio Sola, 2011. "Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy," IHEID Working Papers 07-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    8. Weonho Yang & Jan Fidrmuc & Sugata Ghosh, 2013. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Adjustment: A Tale of two Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 4401, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2010. "Fiscal Adjustment and the Costs of Public Debt Service: Evidence from OECD Countries," CREMA Working Paper Series 2010-08, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    10. Jawadi Fredj & Mallick Sushanta K. & Sousa Ricardo M., 2014. "Fiscal policy in the BRICs," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 15, April.
    11. Luca Agnello & Davide Furceri & Ricardo Sousa, 2013. "Discretionary Government Consumption, Private Domestic Demand, and Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-100, February.
    12. Yu Hsing, 2011. "Macroeconomic Variables and the Stock Market: the Case of Lithuania," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 3(1), pages 031-037, June.
    13. Afonso, António & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "What are the effects of fiscal policy on asset markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1871-1890, July.
    14. Luca Agnello & Gilles Dufrénot & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "Adjusting the U.S. Fiscal Policy for Asset Prices: Evidence from a TVP-MS Framework," NIPE Working Papers 20/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:53:y:2009:i:1:p:37-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.