IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1077.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Hernán Rincón-Castro

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

La relación entre la deuda pública y las tasas de interés de mercado ha sido un tema de amplia discusión en la literatura internacional, por sus implicaciones sobre los mercados financieros, las decisiones de ahorro e inversión de los agentes económicos y el agregado de la economía. En este artículo se analiza cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda del pública la pendiente o spread de la estructura a plazos de las tasas de interés en Colombia en el periodo 2003-2017. Para alcanzar su objetivo, primero se estima el spread a diferentes plazos, mediante un modelo de estado-espacio. Posteriormente, se determina el impacto de la deuda sobre aquel; utilizando modelos de series de tiempo univariados y multivariados. Por último, se realiza una descomposición histórica de choques del spread. Los principales resultados obtenidos muestran que la deuda pública tiene un efecto positivo sobre el spread, tanto la emitida a tasa fija como a tasa variable. Así mismo se encuentra que la emisión de deuda a tasa variable tiene un mayor efecto sobre el spread de las tasas de interés de corto plazo, mientras la de tasa fija, más sensible a las condiciones del mercado, tiene un mayor impacto sobre el spread de las tasas de interés de largo plazo. La implicación de política más importante es el llamado a la reducción del endeudamiento público, con el objetivo de aminorar su impacto no deseado sobre el mercado financiero y la actividad económica. **** ABSTRACT: The relationship between public debt and market interest rates has been a subject of wide discussion in the international literature, due to its implications for the financial markets, saving and investment decisions of economic agents and for the aggregate of the economy. This article analyzes how and how much public debt impacts the slope or spread of the term structure of interest rates in Colombia in the period 2003-2017. To reach its objective, the spread is estimated at different terms, using a state-space model. Subsequently, the impact of the debt on the spread is determined; using univariate and multivariate time series models. Finally, a historical decomposition of the spread shocks is carried out. The main results obtained show that the public debt has a positive effect on the spread, both debts issued at a fixed rate and at a variable rate. It is also found that the issuance of debt at a variable rate has a greater effect on the spread of the short-term interest rates, while the fixed-rate debt, which is more sensitive to market conditions, has a greater impact on the spread of long-term rates. The most important policy implication is the call for the reduction of public indebtedness, with the aim of reducing its undesired impact on the financial market and economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos David Ardila-Dueñas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2019. "¿Cómo y qué tanto impacta la deuda pública a las tasas de interés de mercado?," Borradores de Economia 1077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1077
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1077
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.1077?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Missale, Alessandro, 2004. "High public debt in currency crises: fundamentals versus signaling effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 165-188, March.
    2. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
    3. F. A. Lutz, 1940. "The Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 55(1), pages 36-63.
    4. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, September.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    6. Jorge Toro & Aarón Garavito & David Camilo López & Enrique Montes, 2015. "El choque petrolero y sus implicaciones en la economía colombiana," Borradores de Economia 13829, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Correia-Nunes, Jose & Stemitsiotis, Loukas, 1995. "Budget Deficit and Interest Rates: Is There a Link? International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 425-449, November.
    8. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    9. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
    10. Strauch, Rolf & Paesani, Paolo & Kremer, Manfred, 2006. "Public debt and long-term interest rates: the case of Germany, Italy and the USA," Working Paper Series 656, European Central Bank.
    11. Kameda, Keigo, 2014. "Budget deficits, government debt, and long-term interest rates in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 105-124.
    12. Sinha, Arunima, 2015. "Government debt, learning and the term structure," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 268-289.
    13. Jorge Ramos F. & Norberto Rodríguez, 1995. "Déficit fiscal y tasas de interés en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 14(27), pages 39-61, June.
    14. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    15. Melo-Becerra & Ramos-Forero & Hector Zárate-Solano, 2015. "Sovereign bond markets and financial stability in an emerging economy: an application of directed acyclic graphs and SVAR models," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 306-319, November.
    16. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1991. "Current and Anticipated Deficits, Interest Rates and Economic Activity," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 361-390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2014. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 663-713.
    18. Sierra, Lya Paola & Manrique L., Karina, 2014. "Impacto del tipo de cambio real en los sectores industriales de Colombia: una primera aproximación," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    19. Shiller, Robert J. & Beltratti, Andrea E., 1992. "Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 25-46, October.
    20. Commandeur, Jacques J.F. & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2007. "An Introduction to State Space Time Series Analysis," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199228874.
    21. Antonio Afonso, 2010. "Long-term government bond yields and economic forecasts: evidence for the EU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(15), pages 1437-1441.
    22. Diego Alejandro Martínez Cruz & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez & Juan Sebastián Rojas Moreno, 2015. "Evolución de la relación entre bonos locales y externos del gobierno colombiano frente a choques de riesgo," Borradores de Economia 14112, Banco de la Republica.
    23. Reuben A. Kessel, 1965. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kess65-1, March.
    24. Hoelscher, Gregory, 1986. "New Evidence on Deficits and Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 1-17, February.
    25. Arango, Luis Eduardo & Flórez, Luz Adriana, 2008. "Tramo corto de la curva de rendimientos, cambio de régimen inflacionario y expectativas de inflación en Colombia," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(297), pages 183-210, enero-mar.
    26. Osmani Teixeira De Carvalho Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2009. "Characterising the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114.
    27. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
    28. Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "An Introductory Review of a Structural VAR-X Estimation and Applications," Borradores de Economia 9200, Banco de la Republica.
    29. Mishkin, Frederie S., 1981. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates : An efficient markets approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-55.
    30. Bovenberg, A.L., 1988. "Long-term interest rates in the United States : An empirical analysis," Other publications TiSEM eb2d645e-6795-456d-b090-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    31. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "The information in the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 509-528, December.
    32. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2006. "Kalman Filter and its Economic Applications," MPRA Paper 22734, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    33. Evans, Paul, 1985. "Do Large Deficits Produce High Interest Rates?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 68-87, March.
    34. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    35. Wachtel, Paul & Young, John, 1987. "Deficit Announcements and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 1007-1012, December.
    36. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Does public capital crowd out private capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 171-188, September.
    37. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    38. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    39. Kanhaya Gupta, 1989. "Budget deficits and interest rates in the United States," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 87-92, January.
    40. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, Michael R, 1997. "Explaining the Failures of the Term Spread Models of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 364-380, August.
    41. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Monetary Policy and Short-Term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets-Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 63-72, March.
    42. Agustín García & Julián Ramajo, 2005. "Fiscal policy and private consumption behaviour: The Spanish case," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 115-135, January.
    43. Richard Cebula, 1997. "The impact of net international capital inflows on nominal long-term interest rates in France," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 179-190, June.
    44. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial Markets’ Behavior Around Episodes of Large Changes in the Fiscal Stance," Scholarly Articles 2579824, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    45. Alexander Guarín & José Fernando Moreno & Hernando Vargas, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between US and Colombian Long-Term Sovereign Bond Yields," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 32(74), pages 68-86, June.
    46. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    47. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lewis, Karen K., 1994. "Do stationary risk premia explain it all?: Evidence from the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 285-318, April.
    48. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, 2003. "Estimación de la estructura a plazo de las tasas de interés en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 33(1), pages 51-76, March.
    49. Evans, Paul, 1987. "Do budget deficits raise nominal interest rates? : Evidence from six countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 281-300, September.
    50. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2009. "Federal budget deficits and long-term interest rates in USA," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 74-84, February.
    51. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    52. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    53. William G. Gale & Peter R. Orszag, 2004. "Budget Deficits, National Saving, and Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 101-210.
    54. A. Lans Bovenberg, 1988. "Long-Term Interest Rates in the United States: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(2), pages 382-390, June.
    55. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1990. "World Real Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 15-74, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    56. Marvin Goodfriend, 1998. "Using the term structure of interest rates for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 13-30.
    57. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2003. "El tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2558, Banco de la Republica.
    58. Kim, Kenneth A. & Limpaphayom, Piman, 1997. "The effect of economic regimes on the relation between term structure and real activity in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 379-392.
    59. McMillin, W. Douglas, 1986. "Federal deficits and short-term interest rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-422.
    60. Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938. "Some Theoretical Problems Suggested by the Movements of Interest Rates, Bond Yields and Stock Prices in the United States since 1856," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number maca38-1, March.
    61. Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 79-101.
    62. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 1993/019, International Monetary Fund.
    63. Sax, Christoph & Steiner, Peter, 2013. "Temporal Disaggregation of Time Series," MPRA Paper 53389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    64. S. J. Koopman & J. Durbin, 2003. "Filtering and smoothing of state vector for diffuse state‐space models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-98, January.
    65. Claeys, Peter & Moreno, Rosina & Suriñach, Jordi, 2012. "Debt, interest rates, and integration of financial markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 48-59.
    66. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño & John Castro-Pantoja, 2017. "Perturbaciones macroeconómicas, tasa de cambio y pass-through sobre precios," Borradores de Economia 982, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    67. Roger W. Spencer & William P. Yohe, 1971. "A historical analysis of the \"crowding out\" of private expenditures by fiscal policy actions," Working Papers 1971-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    68. Arturo Estrella & Mary R. Trubin, 2006. "The yield curve as a leading indicator: some practical issues," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Jul).
    69. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & John Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo, 2006. "Efectos de los cambios en la tasa de intervención del Banco de la República sobre la estructura a plazo," Borradores de Economia 424, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    70. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575.
    71. Arturo Estrella, 2005. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Output and Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(505), pages 722-744, July.
    72. Park, Chul Woo, 1999. "Maturity structure of public debt and expected bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1407-1435, September.
    73. Kormendi, Roger C, 1983. "Government Debt, Government Spending, and Private Sector Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 994-1010, December.
    74. Cleomar Gomes da Silva & Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires & Fábio Henrique Bittes Terra, 2014. "The effects of public debt management on macroeconomic equilibrium: An analysis of the Brazilian economy," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 15(2), pages 174-188.
    75. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "World Interest Rates and Investment," NBER Working Papers 3849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    76. Harvey, Campbell R., 1988. "The real term structure and consumption growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 305-333, December.
    77. Bank for International Settlements, 2014. "The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 78.
    78. Ari Aisen & David Hauner, 2013. "Budget deficits and interest rates: a fresh perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2501-2510, June.
    79. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & Jhon Jairo León & Luis Fernando Melo, 2006. "Efectos de los cambios en la tasa de intervención del Banco de la República sobre la estructura a plazo," Borradores de Economia 2425, Banco de la Republica.
    80. Diego Alejandro Martínez Cruz & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez & Juan Sebastián Rojas Moreno, 2015. "Evolución de la relación entre bonos locales y externos del gobierno colombiano frente a choques de riesgo," Borradores de Economia 919, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    81. R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," AEI Economics Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
    82. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(4), pages 781-806, December.
    83. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 37-55, January.
    84. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Reifschneider, David L., 2002. "Short-Run Effects of Fiscal Policy With Forward-Looking Financial Markets," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 55(3), pages 357-386, September.
    85. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1993. "Commodity prices, the term structure of interest rates, and exchange rates: useful indicators for monetary policy?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 18-32.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bruno Ducoudre, 2008. "Structure par terme des taux d’intérêt et anticipations de la politique économique," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5221, Sciences Po.
    3. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    5. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    6. Suzan Hol, 2006. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the Scandinavian countries," Discussion Papers 469, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    7. André Pinho & Ricardo Barradas, 2021. "Determinants of the Portuguese government bond yields," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2375-2395, April.
    8. Yu Hsing, 2015. "Determinants of the Government Bond Yield in Spain: A Loanable Funds Model," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-9, July.
    9. Angélica Arosemena, 2002. "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de literatura," Borradores de Economia 223, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2009. "Fiscal policy and stock market efficiency: Evidence for the United States," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 633-650, May.
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Girardi, Alessandro, 2013. "Fiscal spillovers in the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 84.1-84.16.
    12. Bob Barnes, 2007. "A Cointegrating approach to budget deficits and long-term interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 127-133.
    13. Perveen, Asma & Munir, Kashif, 2017. "Impact of Total, Internal and External Government Debt on Interest Rate in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 83427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Carlos Vieira, 2004. "The Deficit?Interest Rate Connection: an empirical assessment of the EU," Economics Working Papers 5_2004, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    15. HARJIT K. Arora & PAMI Dua, 1993. "Budget Deficits, Domestic Investment, And Trade Deficits," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(1), pages 29-44, January.
    16. Suvra Prokash Mondal & Biswajit Maitra, 2022. "Deficits, Debt and Interest Rates in Sri Lanka: Does the Spillover of Foreign Interest Rates Matter?," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 28-48, February.
    17. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
    18. Sinai, Allen, 2006. "Deficits, expected deficits, financial markets, and the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 79-101, March.
    19. Christopher D. Cotton, 2021. "Debt, Deficits, and Interest Rates," Current Policy Perspectives 93543, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    20. Ernest Dautovic, 2017. "The effect of real-time fiscal policy on sovereign interest rates in OECD countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 167-185, January.
    21. Morell, Joseph, 2018. "The decline in the predictive power of the US term spread: A structural interpretation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 314-331.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    deuda pública; estructura a plazos de las tasas de interés; spread; filtro de kalman; VAR-X; descomposición histórica;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.