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Current and Anticipated Deficits, Interest Rates and Economic Activity

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Author Info
Olivier J. Blanchard

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Abstract

There is widespread feeling that current deficits, in Europe and the U.S.,may hurt rather than help the recovery. This paper examines some of the issues involved, through a sequence of three models.The first model focuses on sustainability and characterizes its determinants. It suggests that the issue of sustainability may indeed ber elevant in some countries.The second model focuses on the effects of fiscal policy on real interestrates, and in particular on the relative importance of the level of deficits andthe level of debt in determining interest rates.The third model focuses on the effects of fiscal policy on the speed of the recovery. It shows how a sharply increasing fiscal expansion might be initially contractionary rather than expansionary.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1265.

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Date of creation: Jan 1984
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Publication status: published as Blanchard, Olivier J. "Current and Anticipated Deficits, Interest Rates and Economic Activity." European Economic Review, Vol. 25, (1984), pp. 7-27. North-Holland.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1265

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  1. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1987. "Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates in a Monetary Model of a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 1716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  3. Martin Feldstein, 1984. "Can an Increased Budget Deficit Be Contractionary?," NBER Working Papers 1434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "Close to Balance or in Surplus. A Policy Maker’s Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 28, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Willem H. Buiter, 1984. "Measuring Aspects of Fiscal and Financial Policy," NBER Working Papers 1332, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Alberto Petrucci, 2004. "Asset Accumulation, Fertility Choice and Nondegenerate Dynamics in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 2004.121, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  7. William T. Smith, 1998. "Birth, Death, And Consumption: Overlapping Generations And The Random Walk Hypothesis," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 105-116, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Jeffrey B. Liebman & David W. Wilcox, 2001. "Fiscal Policy and Social Security Policy During the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 8488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Atreya Chakraborty & Abdikarim M. Farah, 1996. "Ricardian Equivalence: Further Evidence," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 19-31, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. S. Sgherri, 2000. "The fiscal dimension of a common monetary policy: results with a non-Ricardian global model," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 615, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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