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El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Luz Adriana Flórez

    ()

  • Angélica María Arosemena

Abstract

En relación con los síntomas que probablemente tendrá la actividad económica en el futuro, un aumento en el spread de tasas de interés reduce la probabilidad de tener momentos dificiles mas adelante. Este resultado se cumple para un período 12 y 24 meses adelante y se ajusta al modelo teórico utilizado. La inclusión de variables monetarias en el modelo empírico no afecta la significancia estadística ni los signos del spread ni del diferencial de inflación. Sin embargo, el crecimiento monetario también contiene información sobre el ambiente económico futuro.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 279.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:279

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Keywords: Estructura a plazo; spread de tasas de interés; diferencial de inflación; expectativas de actividad económica; logit ordenados;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2004. "Expectativas De Actividad Económica En Colombia Y Estructura A Plazo: Un Poco Más De Evidencia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002692, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
  3. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2006. "Estimación del spread de tasas de corto y largo plazo: Un indicador de alerta temprana
    [An estimation of short and long term rates spread: a leading indicator]
    ," MPRA Paper 11116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2007.

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