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Budget Deficit and Interest Rates: Is There a Link? International Evidence

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Author Info
Correia-Nunes, Jose
Stemitsiotis, Loukas
Abstract

This paper addresses the question whether high nominal and real long-term interest rates are associated with larger budget deficits. The authors use a loanable funds model framework that allows the combination of the characteristics of the term-structure, with policy variables, influencing long-term interest rates. The paper brings a different perspective to empirical investigations by using a specific econometric approach that combines rational expectations with sticky prices and slow adjustment. The regression results show that the linkage between large deficits and high interest rates is statistically strong and robust during the 1970-93 period for ten major industrial countries and at the world level. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 57 (1995)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 425-49
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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:57:y:1995:i:4:p:425-49

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049

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  1. Bruneau, C. & De Bandt, O., 1999. "Fiscal Policy in the Transition to Monetary Union: a Structural VAR Model," Documents de Travail 60, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jesper Lindé, 2001. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in a small open economy," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 65-83, Autumn. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bruno Ducoudré, 2005. "Fiscal policy and interest rates," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  4. Mª Mar Sánchez, 2002. "Interest-Rate Models For Us And Uk With Mixed Inflationary Expectations. A Comparison With The Rational And The Adaptive Scheme," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie). [Downloadable!]
  5. Denise Côté & Christopher Graham, 2004. "Convergence of Government Bond Yields in the Euro Zone: The Role of Policy Harmonization," Working Papers 04-23, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Säfvenblad, Patrik, 1998. "The Informational Advantage of Foreign Investors: An Empirical Study of the Swedish Bond Market," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 240, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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