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El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia

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  • Luis E Arango
  • Luz Adriana Flórez
  • Angélica M Arosemena

Abstract

This article tests the hypothesis that the term structure of interest rates contains information about future economic activity in Colombia. According to the multilogit approach used to verify the hypothesis that an increase in the spread of interest rate

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía-Latin American Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 42 (2005)
Issue (Month): 125 ()
Pages: 79-101

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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:42:y:2005:i:125:p:79-101

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Keywords: Estructura a Plazo; Spread de Tasas de Interés; Diferencial de Inflación; Expectativas de Actividad Económica; Logit Ordenados;

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References

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  3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, . "Expectativas de Actividad Económica en Colombia y Estructura a Plazo: Un Poco más de Evidencia," Borradores de Economia 302, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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  7. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2003. "El tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como predictor de Expectativas de Inflación en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002558, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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  18. Richard V. Burkhauser & Kenneth A. Couch & David C. Wittenburg, 2000. "Who Minimum Wage Increases Bite: An Analysis Using Monthly Data from the SIPP and the CPS," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 16-40, July.
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  28. Catherine Bonser-Neal & Timothy R. Morley, 1997. "Does the yield spread predict real economic activity? : a multicountry analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 37-53.
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  30. Luis Eduardo Arango & Angélica María Arosemena, 2002. "Lecturas Alternativas de la Estructura a Plazo: Una Breve Revisión de Literatura," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003138, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  31. Kim, Kenneth A. & Limpaphayom, Piman, 1997. "The effect of economic regimes on the relation between term structure and real activity in Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 379-392.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2004. "Expectativas De Actividad Económica En Colombia Y Estructura A Plazo: Un Poco Más De Evidencia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  2. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
  3. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2006. "Estimación del spread de tasas de corto y largo plazo: Un indicador de alerta temprana
    [An estimation of short and long term rates spread: a leading indicator]
    ," MPRA Paper 11116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2007.

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