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Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile

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  • Christian Johnson

Abstract

This article presents a historical analysis of the Chilean monthly growth rate from 1987 to 2000, applying the Switching Regime methodology design by Hamilton (1989). Three scenarios were considered, which imply a number of parameters estimated using the

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Johnson, 2001. "Un Modelo de Switching para el Crecimiento en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 38(115), pages 291-319.
    • Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:38:y:2001:i:115:p:291-319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rodrigo Valdés, 1998. "Efectos de la Política Monetaria en Chile," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 35(104), pages 97-125.
    2. Patricio Rojas & Eduardo López & Susana Jiménez, 1997. "Determinantes del Crecimiento y Estimación del Producto Potencial en Chile: El Rol del Comercio," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 24, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    4. Potter, Simon M, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    5. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    6. Hamilton, James D, 1991. "A Quasi-Bayesian Approach to Estimating Parameters for Mixtures of Normal Distributions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 27-39, January.
    7. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    8. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2004. "Un análisis del ciclo económico de la República Dominicana bajo cambios de régimen [Analysis of business cycle of the Dominican Republic using Markov Switching model]," MPRA Paper 54352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Byron Idrovo A., 2010. "¿Cuál es el crecimiento de largo plazo de la economía chilena? Una respuesta formal para una antigua pregunta," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    3. Alejandro R. Pena Sanchez, 2004. "El ciclo económico en Uruguay - Un modelo de Switching Regimes," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 111, Econometric Society.
    4. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron & Contreras, Javier, 2009. "Un Modelo SARIMA para Predecir la Tasa de Desempleo de Chile [A model SARIMA to predict chilean unemployment]," MPRA Paper 19369, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Sep 2009.
    5. Luis E Arango & Luz Adriana Flórez & Angélica M Arosemena, 2005. "El Tramo Corto de la Estructura a Plazo como Predictor de Expectativas de la Actividad Económica en Colombia," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 79-101.
    6. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2006. "Estimación del spread de tasas de corto y largo plazo: Un indicador de alerta temprana [An estimation of short and long term rates spread: a leading indicator]," MPRA Paper 11116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Mar 2007.
    7. Idrovo Aguirre, Byron, 2007. "Los Ciclos del Mercado Inmobiliario y su Relación con los Ciclos de la Economía [Housing Market Fluctuations and the Economic Cycles]," MPRA Paper 19365, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Sep 2007.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; monetary policy; algorithm EM; optimization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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