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La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?

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Author Info
Sara G. Castellanos () (Banco de Mexico)
Eduardo Camero () (Banco de México y University of Chicago)
Abstract

This article uses conventional models to evaluate whether the term structure of interest rates can predict economic activity in Mexico. A positive relationship between interest rate differentials and economic activity is detected, even after controlling for the monetary policy stance through short term interest rates or monetary aggregates. The differentials among longer term interest rates are found to contain more information about future economic activity than the shorter term ones.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Ilades-Georgetown University, Economics Department in its journal Revista de Analisis Economico.

Volume (Year): 18 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (December)
Pages: 33-66
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Handle: RePEc:ila:anaeco:v:18:y:2003:i:2:p:33-66

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Related research
Keywords: term structure of interest rates monetary policy

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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    Other versions:
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  4. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1986. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates Revisited," NBER Reprints 0777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Other versions:
  8. Gonzalez, Jorge G & Spencer, Roger W & Walz, Daniel T, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Mexican Economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 284-94, July.
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  18. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Torsten Sløk & Peter F. Christoffersen, 2000. "Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity?," IMF Working Papers 00/103, International Monetary Fund.
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  22. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1995. "The term structure of interest rates and its role in monetary policy for the European Central Bank," Research Paper 9526, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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