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The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy

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  • JG. Gonzalez
  • RW. Spencer
  • DT. Walz

Abstract

Can the yield spread, which has been found to predict with surprising accuracy the movement of key macroeconomic variables of developed countries, also predict such variables for a developing country experiencing economic turmoil? This article presents empirical results that suggest significant forecasting ability for the yield spread for segments of the Mexican economy during the 1995–1997 period of economic volatility. The actual and predicted variable changes sometimes conflict with those experienced by developed countries in part because of the unusually close relationship between the Mexican Treasury and the Banco de México. Consequently, analysts and policy officials may exploit the forecast potential of the yield spread, but only in the context of evolving institutional considerations.

Suggested Citation

  • JG. Gonzalez & RW. Spencer & DT. Walz, 2000. "The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(3), pages 284-294, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:18:y:2000:i:3:p:284-294
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7287.2000.tb00025.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Baltzer & Gerhard Kling, 2005. "Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of different monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003," Working Papers 5023, Economic History Society.
    2. Ege, Yazgan & Huseyin, Kaya, 2010. "Has inflation targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from an emerging market ?," MPRA Paper 24810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jorge Gonzalez & Roger Spencer & Daniel Walz, 2003. "A contemporary analysis of Mexican stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 741-745.
    4. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Ratti, Ronald A., 2003. "On the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates for future inflation changes in the presence of political instability: the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 931-946, December.
    5. Burak Saltoglu & M. Ege Yazgan, 2012. "The Role of Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further Evidence from an Emerging Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S5), pages 48-63, November.
    6. Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr & Laura M. Saenz Rojo, 2018. "Yield Spreads, The Exchange Rate, and Recession Predictability for Northern Mexico Border Economies," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(1), pages 56-64, March.
    7. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
    8. Huseyin Kaya & M. Ege Yazgan, 2011. "Has 'inflation targeting' increased the predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from Turkish experience?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(20), pages 1539-1547.
    9. Reyna Cerecero Mario & Salazar Cavazos Diana & Salgado Banda Héctor, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.

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