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The term structure of interest rates and the Mexican economy

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  • JG. Gonzalez
  • RW. Spencer
  • DT. Walz
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    Abstract

    Can the yield spread, which has been found to predict with surprising accuracy the movement of key macroeconomic variables of developed countries, also predict such variables for a developing country experiencing economic turmoil? This article presents empirical results that suggest significant forecasting ability for the yield spread for segments of the Mexican economy during the 1995-1997 period of economic volatility. The actual and predicted variable changes sometimes conflict with those experienced by developed countries in part because of the unusually close relationship between the Mexican Treasury and the Banco de México. Consequently, analysts and policy officials may exploit the forecast potential of the yield spread, but only in the context of evolving institutional considerations. Copyright 2000 Western Economic Association International.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Contemporary Economic Policy.

    Volume (Year): 18 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 3 (07)
    Pages: 284-294

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:18:y:2000:i:3:p:284-294

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    Cited by:
    1. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
    2. Sara G. Castellanos & Eduardo Camero, 2003. "La estructura temporal de tasas de interés en México: ¿Puede predecir la actividad económica futura?," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines, vol. 18(2), pages 33-66, December.
    3. Ege, Yazgan & Huseyin, Kaya, 2010. "Has inflation targeting increased predictive power of term structure about future inflation: evidence from an emerging market ?," MPRA Paper 24810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Jorge Gonzalez & Roger Spencer & Daniel Walz, 2003. "A contemporary analysis of Mexican stock market volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 741-745.

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