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Credit Risks and European Government Bond Markets: A Panel Data Econometric Analysis

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Author Info
Jan J.G. Lemmen () (Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics)
Charles A.E. Goodhart (Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics)

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Abstract

A fixed effects panel data estimation of the determinants of European government default risk is undertaken. Credit risk of sovereign debt is assessed by comparing yields on benchmark government bonds with high-quality private risk represented by interest rate swap yields. Using a new data-set from the European Commission (DG2's AMECO database), we find government default risk to depend positively on changes in the debt to GDP ratio and the variability of inflation and negatively on lagged inflation and changes in taxable capacity. Finally, there is evidence for persistence of government bond yield spreads reflecting differences in cross-country government default risk.

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File URL: http://college.holycross.edu/eej/Volume25/V25N1P77_107.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Eastern Economic Association in its journal Eastern Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 25 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 77-107
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Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:25:y:1999:i:1:p:77-107

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Related research
Keywords: Bond Market; Bonds; Government Bonds; Interest Rates; Interest; Yield;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates

Cited by:
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  1. Samir Jahjah, 2001. "Financial Stability and Fiscal Crises in a Monetary Union," IMF Working Papers 01/201, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen & Ludger Schuknecht, 2006. "Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market," Discussion Papers 151, SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ludger Schuknecht & Jürgen von Hagen & Guido Wolswijk, 2008. "Government risk premiums in the bond market. EMU and Canada," Working Paper Series 879, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," NIPE Working Papers 22/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2004. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 10788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Petr Hedbávný & Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zápal, 2005. "A Fiscal Rule that has Teeth: A Suggestion for a Fiscal Sustainability Council underpinned by the Financial Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Astrid Landschoot, 2004. "Sovereign credit spreads and the composition of the government budget," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 510-524, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ullrich, Katrin, 2006. "Market discipline and the use of government bonds as collateral in the EMU," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-46, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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