Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in time of crisis: A panel data analysis

Contents:

Author Info

  • Marta Gómez-Puig

    ()
    (Department of Economic Theory, Riskcenter-IREA, Universitat de Barcelona)

  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

    ()
    (Department of Quantitative Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

    ()
    (Department of Quantitative Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

Abstract

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries. Besides, without exception, the marginal effects of sovereign spread drivers (specifically, the variables that measure global market sentiment) increased during the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period, especially in peripheral countries.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ub.edu/riskcenter/research/WP/UBriskcenterWP201404.pdf
File Function: First version, 2014
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter in its series Working Papers with number 2014-04.

as in new window
Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bak:wpaper:201404

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Av. Diagonal 690, 08034 Barcelona
Phone: 934021824
Fax: 934021821
Email:
Web page: http://www.ub.edu/riskcenter/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Sovereign bond spreads; panel data; eurozone;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Jordi Mondria & Climent Quintana Domeque, 2012. "Financial contagion and attention allocation," Working Papers. Serie AD 2012-07, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  2. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 388, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  7. Niccolò Battistini & Marco Pagano & Saverio Simonelli, 2013. "Systemic Risk, Sovereign Yields and Bank Exposures in the Euro Crisis," CSEF Working Papers 345, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  8. Lieven Baele, 2004. "Measuring European Financial Integration," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 509-530, Winter.
  9. Katsimi, Margarita & Moutos, Thomas, 2010. "EMU and the Greek crisis: The political-economy perspective," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 568-576, December.
  10. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Beirne, John & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "The Pricing of Sovereign Risk and Contagion during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9249, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1046-59, November.
  13. Marta Gómez-Puig, . "Monetary integration and the cost of borrowing," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-05, FEDEA.
  14. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2010. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: the impact of the financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1152, European Central Bank.
  16. Cheng Hsiao, 2007. "Panel data analysis—advantages and challenges," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, May.
  17. Abad, Pilar & Chuliá, Helena & Gómez-Puig, Marta, 2009. "EMU and European government bond market integration," Working Paper Series 1079, European Central Bank.
  18. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
  19. Schuknecht, Ludger & von Hagen, Jürgen & Wolswijk, Guido, 2007. "Government Risk Premiums in the Bond Market: EMU and Canada," CEPR Discussion Papers 6579, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Vito Polito & Michael Wickens, 2011. "Assessing the fiscal stance in the European Union and the United States, 1970–2011," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 26(68), pages 599-647, October.
  21. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Migiakis, Petros M., 2013. "Heterogeneity of the determinants of euro-area sovereign bond spreads; what does it tell us about financial stability?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4650-4664.
  22. Gerlach, Stefan & Schulz, Alexander & Wolff, Guntram B., 2010. "Banking and sovereign risk in the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  23. Klose, Jens & Weigert, Benjamin, 2012. "Determinants of sovereign yield spreads during the Euro-crisis: Fundamental factors versus systemic risk," Working Papers 07/2012, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  24. Marco Pagano & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," CSEF Working Papers 126, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  25. Gomez-Puig, Marta, 2006. "Size matters for liquidity: Evidence from EMU sovereign yield spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 156-162, February.
  26. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  27. António Rua, 2002. "Composite Indicators for the Euro Area Economic Activity," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  28. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  29. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  30. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
  31. Christian Aßmann & Jens Hogrefe, 2009. "Determinants of government bond spreads in the Euro area – in good times as in bad," Kiel Working Papers 1548, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  32. Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
  33. R. López & E. Navarro, 2013. "Interest rate and stock return volatility indices for the Eurozone. Investors' gauges of fear during the recent financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(18), pages 1419-1432, September.
  34. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  35. Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2013. "Conditional euro area sovereign default risk," Working Paper Series 269, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  36. Dötz, Niko & Fischer, Christoph, 2010. "What can EMU countries' sovereign bond spreads tell us about market perceptions of default probabilities during the recent financial crisis?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  37. Cheng Hsiao, 2007. "Rejoinder on: Panel data analysis—advantages and challenges," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 56-57, May.
  38. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2012. "A model-based indicator of the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 526-551.
  39. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2013. "Granger-causality in peripheral EMU public debt markets: A dynamic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4627-4649.
  40. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Pricing the commonality across alternative measures of liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 45-72, January.
  41. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bak:wpaper:201404. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Montserrat Guillen).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.